Last week’s sideways asset action kept the pressure on sellers that may have overstayed their welcome — once again trying to pick that elusive market top. They may not find it. That’s because the market’s setting up for a “Square Root Recovery” – here’s everything you need to know to understand what’s going on…

The dip in prices last week was once again met with buying that now have positioned oil, gold and stocks for a run to recent highs. This setup is impressive now that the S&P has reclaimed the 1100 level and now attacking resistance at 1110/1120 which was the triple top from November/December. This has all been accomplished without the aid of Dollar weakness that can accelerate the bull trend on a turn down below 79.5.

Stocks were nearly unchanged for the week with prices in the major indexes off less than 1 percent. The above-mentioned S&P was down 5 points, which is a 0.4% loss in the broad based market barometer. The Dow was down 77 points, -0.7%, and the NASDAQ lost 6 points, -0.3%, for the week ending February 26th.

The “square root” recovery was not my original description but aptly summarizes market action over the past 18 months. As the name implies the recovery is that of a square root sign, which is a sharp initial recovery followed by leveling off later down the road. The V shaped recovery has stalled with prices moving sideways in most assets since the highs of December and January.

Stocks had led the way for the past year and look ready for another attack on the S&P 1150 then the original breakout of 1300 from August 2008. Since my research service, Resource Trader Alert, focuses on trading commodity futures, not stocks — not stocks — the question remains: how does that affect our futures plays?

The upside potential is magnified in natural resource assets, which were crushed in the previous economic decline. Prices in commodities have another 15% to regain half of the overall drop from 2008. Stocks have long ago rallied above that level and signal a continued recovery with resiliency short lived selling pressures.

A Commodity stock rally from the February 5th lows is leading the way: US Steel $42 to $54 (28%), Cleveland Cliffs $39 to $58 (49%), and the worlds largest Gold producer Barrick Gold $33 to $38 (15%).

One natural resource that is not exchange traded, Iron Ore, has made new yearly highs.  This from Bloomberg:

The cash price of iron ore delivered to China, the world’s biggest buyer, rose to the highest in more than a year on demand from the nations steelmakers.

The cost of 62 percent iron-content ore delivered to the port of Tianjin increased 1.4 percent to $133.10 a metric ton today, the highest in at least 14 months, according to The Steel Index. The so-called spot price has gained 9.8 percent in the past four weeks and has more than doubled from its 2009 low on March 27.

As mentioned last week, sometimes clues come from not what happens, but rather what does not. The comeback from the depths in February was a good sign for continued trend strength.

In fact the Dow gained 2.6% during the month, as the S&P 500 added 2.9% when our fighter looked knocked down. Gold also added $40 an ounce and crude over $6 a barrel for the month. This powerful resurgence was surprisingly against the headwind of a rising US dollar.

That all boils down to one thing – if our square root recovery holds true, we can expect stocks to track sideways for a while. And while that’s not great new for all of the folks who are betting hard against the market right now, it’s great news for traders like us… After all, a sideways track for the market gives us plenty of short-term opportunities to trade for maximum profit. You can bet that’s exactly what we’ll be doing as we approach the second quarter of 2010.

It all comes back to commodities,
Alan Knuckman
Penny Sleuth

March 4, 2010

Alan Knuckman

Alan Knuckman brings two decades of commodity trading experience to his role as managing editor of Resource Trader Alert, a weekly newsletter providing analysis and real-time updates on current and evolving market conditions. His options, futures, and currencies experience have made him a sought after commentator on issues shaping both hard (extracted or mined) and soft (grown or produced through the agriculture industry) commodities. He is a frequent guest on major international media outlets including CNBC, Sky News, MarketWatch, Bloomberg, Fox Business Network, CNN Money, and Reuters.

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