A doll called Amazing Amanda is causing quite a stir in the toy industry. It does such a good job of synthesizing human behavior that children are treating it as if the doll were alive.

Amazing Amanda can “listen, speak and show emotion.” Its reliance on a combination of technologies for speech-recognition, radio frequency tags and scanners, and facial robotics is causing quite a stir.

This is nothing like earlier talking dolls that mindlessly played recorded phrases when a cord was pulled. It comes with a variety of set accessories, including “food” and “clothing.”

If the doll requests one item and is given another, it correctly identifies what it was given and points out the mistake.

Unlike most high-tech toys that are lectured at boys, Amazing Amanda is definitely for little girls.

And now toymakers are trying a new frontier with Amazing Amanda, convinced that it will stoke a girl’s imagination, not take its place.

When you flip a hidden switch to “awaken” the doll, it displays a humanlike yawn and begins to ask questions in a girl’s voice.

In an experience that must astonish users, the doll quickly learns to recognize its owner’s voice as “mommy.” Anyone else is told, “You don’t sound like Mommy.”

It does this by actually storing and matching the primary user’s voice pattern. It can do this with a wide variety of languages and dialects.    

Currently, the doll will support an hour of speech, including questions, responses, requests, and even songs and games. Animatronics give the appearance of real motions. Its lips even move.

To learn dialects, it asks users to repeat specific words that it then remembers and uses for guidance.

The doll is even being sold at Wal-Mart for $100, a sure sign of its popularity. Here’s what Wal-Mart has to say about it:

“Amazing Amanda is a doll like no other. In fact, she’s the closest thing to a real child that a young ‘pretend mommy’ can have. By responding to voices, recognizing objects and showing emotions with realistic facial expressions, Amazing Amanda establishes an interactive mother-daughter bond that is unparalleled among children’s toys.

• Advanced voice recognition, sensory response and animatronics technologies enable lifelike interaction
• Amazing Amanda learns to recognize her ‘mommy’s’ voice
• She also recognizes objects such as her outfits, toothbrush, sippy cup, various foods and her potty
• She expresses real emotions, such as smiling when happy or pouting when told ‘no’
• She engages in two-way communication with realistic facial expressions and toddler-speak
• She can go ‘potty’ and can even be used to promote potty training
• She keeps track of date and time, and offers reminders of upcoming holidays
• She has an internal clock which can be used as a lovable alarm clock, and may help establish a normal sleeping and waking schedule for your child
• Comes with accessories, pretend food, outfits and more
• She stands 18 inches tall
• Requires four ‘C’ batteries (not included)
• Amazing Amanda is recommended for children ages 4 and up.”

I have a question for you: If you had read this product description in a science fiction story in the 1970s, would it have seemed out of place?

Imagine what you’ll be reading in 10 years.

I’ve been predicting for some time that computers and robots will seem more and more lifelike and human in the years to come, and do so at an ever-accelerating pace. Last year, I attended Next Fest in Chicago, where I was treated to a display of the Philip K. Dick robot conversing with people. Even more advanced than Amazing Amanda, this experimental robot shows what’s possible. There were moments when, staring at its eyes, I had the impression of watching a human being.

That was, of course, an illusion. But think about it: I’m someone who knew what I was watching and capable of understanding key principles behind it.

How would someone less sophisticated such as a child react? Based on what I saw in Chicago, they will tend to treat the robotic system as a person.

Now, Amazing Amanda is the vanguard of this kind of technology moving into popular use. I predict that this will sweep through the entertainment and, eventually, services marketplaces.

Next week, I’ll be attending Next Fest again in New York City, and I can hardly wait to see the further advances in robotic technology. You see, the technological tidal wave accelerates every year that passes. Progress is ever-faster, and this means breakthroughs will more and more resemble miracles (“Any technology sufficiently advanced is indistinguishable from magic.” — Arthur C. Clarke)       

Within five years, many toys will come with personalities and intelligence. This will evolve into robots that perform personal services, including chores. (Think of Rosie from “The Jetsons,” but far more attractively packaged.)

If you want to really get a good sense of where this is all going, grab The Age Of Spiritual Machines by Ray Kurzweil. It reads like science fiction, but it’s not. Kurzweil is my favorite futurist, because he projects current hard data and trends forward based on ample evidence and careful assumptions. (I disagree with him on only a few of his views, and those because I think his assumptions on those views are incomplete.)

The line between person and machine is starting to blur, and the consequences are huge. Multiple startup companies will arise to participate in this revolution, and we’ll be watching for them.

To your profitable future,

Jonathan Kolber
September 27, 2006

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