Have you noticed what’s been happening lately with fabrics? Unless you’re interested in this area, you might have missed some important developments.

I’ve always enjoyed fine fabrics. Cashmere, silk and Sea Island cotton used to be my favorites. (Sea Island, by the way, is an exceptionally fine weave of long fibers associated with Sea Island, GA. It matches or even surpasses the very finest Egyptian cotton in quality.)

Yesterday, equipping a guest bedroom, I bought 400-count cotton linens. They have a nice feel and will make guests happy. But for a comforter and throw cover, I purchased something else, a fabric that didn’t exist until the late 20th century (I love saying “the late 20th century”).

I bought micro polyester. You may already own some of this in your clothing. It’s starting to proliferate into other areas, as I noticed yesterday. The choice was easy: It feels like silk, cleans and washes like cotton and is priced like — well, polyester.

It’s not quite the stuff of the movie The Man in the White Suit — a fabric that’s indestructible and impervious to stain or wrinkling. But it IS pretty hardy: It doesn’t begin to fray like silk if washed in a nondelicate cycle. Also, if it’s washed in the permanent press cycle, it doesn’t get wrinkles.

Micro polyester is truly wonderful stuff, and variants are starting to appear. Polynosic is similar, with a thicker feel, and blends are also appearing. I’m sure this is but the tip of the fabric iceberg. In a moment, I’ll tell you some developments I foresee, but first…

The throw coverlet I purchased wasn’t just a micro polyester shell; it was also filled with goose down. In times past, that would have cost $75 and up. This one was $17 and made in China. The combination of plunging labor costs, rising quality and advanced technology will make high fashion universal within 10-15 years. (If you own any stocks in the fashion or clothing design industries, sell them. Their brands won’t mean much when comparable items that are NOT knockoffs cost a fraction as much.)

I was amazed that real goose down could be so cheap, and I don’t see how that can last. However, nanotechnology assures us of substitutes that offer the same thermal properties, lightness and texture for — you guessed it — polyester prices.

Nanotech has already delivered stain-resistant fabrics to market. I own some Dockers Stain Defender shirts. While I’ll admit to purchasing them as a curiosity, they really do repel the errant blob of soup. This application of nanotech is already cheap: The shirts retail for $38.

Soon, nanotech will add the capability to resist not just liquid stains, but also dirt — including dust, shed bodily tissues (a surprisingly large source of dirt) and bodily oils. Then, at least in theory, you won’t need to wash your clothes at all: Just shake them out. (This may lead to a new kind of vibrator/vacuum washing machine: Place your clothes in it; they’re tossed and vibrated, and the loosened dirt is sucked away. You can see where the law of unexpected consequences kicks in: A development in fabric technology could change the appliance industry.)

Within five years, I predict, boutique fabric manufacturers will start to sprout across the globe. Each will specialize in certain designs and color schemes, and you’ll be able to search without leaving your home or needing the help of a personal designer/consultant. (This could easily become a growth profession.)

The cost of these garments should be just slightly higher than today’s mass-produced items, as the only cost differences will be in volume of production, which will still be high enough to keep total costs small.

This is already happening with carpets. I recently purchased a gorgeous Chinese silk rug, “handmade” (though the more accurate term would be “hand-finished”) for a fraction of what it would have cost a few years back.

Beyond this comes designer clothing on demand. You’ll be able to consult an online library of thousands of multicolored patterns, searchable by intuitive criteria, and select a precise pattern and color scheme unique to you. Your measurements will be on file (this still will not account for wishful thinking on waist size). Then, you enter the order, and your finished garment will soon be delivered.

Unit cost to manufacture will be higher than mass-produced items, but the capital equipment costs will be amortized over many units. As I see it, the net effect is that total cost of such a service should be comparable to that of today’s custom tailors, since the equipment to weave fabric will be completely automated and order processing and other labor largely eliminated.

Over time, as the costs of automated weaving drop, custom prices will move ever closer to those of mass-manufactured items. By 2025, everyone should be wearing designer garments for rack prices.

Express yourself!

To your profitable future,
Jonathan Kolber
July 12, 2006

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