Super-investor Warren Buffet once said that his investment philosophy was to buy stocks when others were fearful, and to be fearful when others were buying. Right now isn’t the time to be fearful along with the herd; it’s time to stock up on stocks.

As I predicted earlier in the year, right now the market is zooming higher like there’s no tomorrow.

Let’s begin with this chart of the S&P 500, a good proxy for the broader U.S. stock market…

As you can see, shares of U.S. companies have been soaring. In fact, from a low of 667 on March 6 to a recent high of 1033, the market is up a mind-boggling 366 points.

Translation: U.S. stocks have improved a whopping 54.9% in just a matter of months.

The fact is the market made positive moves long before the economy was showing a ton of life. And if you don’t jump in early, you’re likely to miss the best moves.

And now, with the 960 level for the S&P 500 — the top of the resistance range — clearly out of the way, U.S. stocks are now setting their sights on the next big resistance level of 1313, set way back in August of last year.

Now, getting there won’t be a straight line: 300-plus point moves don’t usually happen like that. So there will likely be the occasional, healthy pullback along the way.

But there’s no doubt: From a technical perspective, the 1313 level on the S&P 500 is the next order of business.

And don’t forget: When we make it back to this level, we’re getting very close to the pre-recession highs of 1500-plus. While that’s by no means a done deal, there’s little doubt we’re headed in the right direction at a solid pace.

But it’s not just the market’s technical factors that have me jazzed. The fundamentals are on the right track, too…

Fundamentals Improving Big Time!

For a while now, I’ve said that the housing market got us into this mess and the housing market will get us out.

Well, the facts are in: Housing is beginning to show consistent signs of life.

Sales of existing single-family homes jumped 7.2% in July compared to the month earlier. That’s the largest increase since the National Association of Realtors began tracking data way back in 1999. Plus, it marked the fourth monthly increase in a row.

In other words, the improvement in the real estate market isn’t just a flash in the pan. It’s here to stay.

But that’s not all. Compared to July 2008, home sales were up a solid 5%. That’s the first year-over-year gain since November 2005. And that means the real estate market is showing significant legs, even when dealing with tough year-ago comparisons.

Another positive: The improvement in home sales is geographically broad-based. Take a look at this chart…

As you can see, home sales improved across the board during July. In fact, they’re up 13% in the Northeast, 11% in the Midwest and 7% in the South. Only the West region showed a small 2% decrease.

And it’s not just the real estate market that’s showing solid fundamental action. The broader economy is looking good, too. According to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke…

“Fears of financial collapse have receded substantially… After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, both in the U.S. and abroad, and the prospects for a return to growth in the next year appear good.”

And he’s not alone. According a survey of economists by the Wall Street Journal, 28 of 45 respondents say the recession is already behind us, and 16 say it will end by December of this year.

I don’t know about you, but that’s a hugely bullish factor to me. But there’s more: GDP forecasts are also on the rise. Take a look…

As you can see, economists are calling for a big improvement in GDP over the next year. In fact, even though GDP contracted 6.4% and 1% in the first and second quarters of this year respectively, analysts are looking for improvements for next four consecutive quarters in the 2.1% to 2.8% range.

Bottom-line: Stock prices are zooming higher and are now cleared to take out levels not seen since August of last year. In addition, strong fundamental factors — including an improving real estate market, a huge call for an end to the recession and solid GDP projections — are adding solid foundation to more price surges. And no matter how you slice it, that’s positive for your portfolio.

Best wishes,
Wayne Burritt

September 1, 2009

Stocks Are Set to Rocket in September was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

The interview was notable for two reasons – first, because interviews with the Chairman of the Fed were until now almost unheard of, and second, because Bernanke told 25 million viewers that we could see the recession end this year.

“We’ll see the recession coming to an end probably this year. We’ll see recovery beginning next year. And it will pick up steam over time,” he told Pelley.

But Bernanke was quick to qualify his projections: “We won’t be back to full employment. But we will see, I hope, the end of these declines that have been so strong in a last couple of quarters.”

Those are strong words for anyone who sits in Washington’s inner circle, but it’s important to remember that Bernanke hasn’t been a Washingtonian for long. And despite allegations that he’s been too generous with the financial industry, Wall Street is equally as foreign to him.

Bernanke spent the majority of his professional career as an academic, first as a professor at Stanford, NYU and MIT, then as the Chair of Princeton’s Economics Department.

During the interview, 60 Minutes stressed Bernanke’s small-town upbringing. They reminded America that Dr. Ben Bernanke, PhD grew up in the middle class in Dillion, South Carolina. And with no shortage of made-for-TV irony, the cameras met with Bernanke at his childhood home in Dillon, a rancher that’s in foreclosure because the current owners couldn’t make the payments.

But frills aside, what Bernanke said last Sunday night was important for investors to remember.

He pointed out that we’re not going to see any sort of an economic recovery until the financial system gets itself in order. While that doesn’t mean that the stock market has to make sense again, it does mean that our nation’s banks have to get their acts together before things get straightened out.

“The lesson of history is that you do not get a sustained economic recovery as long as the financial system is in crisis. We’ve seen some progress in the financial markets, absolutely. But until we get that stabilized and working normally, we’re not gonna see recovery. But we do have a plan,” he said.

One of the biggest elements of that plan is the “Bernanke Doctrine,” which Chairman Bernanke laid out right after he was sworn in as Fed Chairman back in 2002. In his seven-tiered plan, Bernanke emphasizes a systematic approach to avoiding deflation – one of the biggest concerns that we could face in a recession.

At present, the Bernanke Doctrine is in full effect, and as a result, we’re actually seeing modest inflation right now – up 0.4% in February according to Department of Labor numbers released today. Among other things, that small amount of inflation means that consumers aren’t being pressured by a lack of liquidity in the money supply.

If Bernanke has been this sharp so far on deflation, maybe his seemingly optimistic predictions aren’t so off-the-wall. After all, who has a better pulse on the economy than our nation’s chief economist?

As economic fundamentals begin to show themselves in the coming months, we’ll see if Ben’s hypothesis holds up.

Cheers,
Jonas Elmerraji

March 18, 2009

Berknanke’s Big Bet was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Tom Siebel was that entrepreneur, and Siebel Systems was the venture he started back in July 1993. Because of the recent layoffs, Siebel was able to recruit experienced engineers at a discount. He also acquired some cheap office space in Palo Alto and scooped up office equipment at auctions held by failing companies nearby.

Siebel managed to buy up assets at a time when most were selling. He managed to add experienced employees at a severely reduced price, and the payoff was enormous…

After spending less than $1 million on overhead, his product was ready for release in 1995.

After Siebel’s IPO in June 1996, the company became one of the year’s biggest gainers. Siebel quickly become one of the richest people in the country. “It was a great time to start a company,” Siebel told Wired.

With the economy now in complete disarray, many companies may shift their focus to creating and innovating. In addition to the availability of cheap labor, small businesses and startups have an advantage that Siebel didn’t 15 years ago.

With the growing prominence of cloud computing and open source software, new tech companies are able to get off the ground with limited funding. No longer do programmers have to shell out hundreds of thousands of dollars for servers and office space — they can now work from home and simply rent the processing power needed to get the ball rolling and later expand as their business grows.

Take as an example of this new entrepreneurship the story of Steve Demeter. Silicon Alley Insider recently told the story of the programmer who developed the iPhone puzzle game Trism as a side project, but quit his job after making $250,000 in profits after he started selling the game on iTunes for $4.99 this past summer. Demeter’s initial investment in the game’s development was only $5,000. The Trism game is by no means a life-changing innovation, but Demeter’s story does illustrate how much easier it is these days for small companies to get their foot in the door with limited capital.

It’s not just startups however, that look toward innovation during hard times. When the economy is weak, many large companies will look for new sources of revenue. Take as an example some of the famous inventions created during the Great Depression…

December’s Wired magazine notes that in 1935, after being told by DuPont to leave basic research behind in favor of new product development, Wallace Carothers invented nylon. As his competitors were cutting their R&D budgets, IBM’s founder, Thomas Watson, was building a new research center. Douglas Aircraft unveiled the new DC-3 in 1935. Within four years, it was transporting 90% of commercial airline passengers.

In the wake of the current financial crisis, many companies, large and small, are being forced in new directions. If revenue drops, or if funding for an anticipated project falls through, companies will seek out new products and methods in hopes of bolstering their bottom line.

Best Regards,
Greg Guenthner

December 15, 2008

Innovation Investments Pay Dividends During Recessions was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.