Periodically, we see articles heralding the imminent death of Moore’s law and accelerating progress in the world of electronics. For the sake of your portfolio, don’t buy it. Creative destruction, using economist Joseph Schumpeter’s term, will continue to create breakthrough profit opportunities.

One of those is the memristor, a new type of electronic component that promises to completely change the face of electronics in just a few short years…

In 2007, Hewlett-Packard’s labs demonstrated the first memristor recognized as such. A portmanteau of “memory, and “resistor,” memristance was the theoretical fourth circuit variable, first described in 1971. While HP stock will probably not yield the sort of profits we’re looking for here, it will help generate them indirectly.

Because of its unique properties, Memristance will enable far more powerful circuitry. Unlike transistor-based circuits that form the core of modern electronics, memristive circuits retain their state after losing power. Theoretically, you could power on a memristor-based computer and have all the data in memory that it had when you powered off. Memristor memory could replace hard drives and transistor-based RAM.

Memristors, however, can do more than act as memory. They can replace existing processing components. This means that much more functionality can be implemented in a single component. Instead of busing data back and forth between separate memory and processing locations on a circuit board, memristors do it all. Data, then, are available for processing with shorter wait times. Memristors reduce total hardware size, cost and energy consumption. Yet memristors can multitask in other ways, opening up a whole range of exciting possibilities.

Existing circuit elements only have two states: something or nothing, one or zero. Binary arithmetic is, therefore, used to build up the mathematical functionality needed to implement the logic that gives a computer “intelligence.” Unlike binary elements, memristors can exist in more than two states. This allows the use of higher base number systems. A single memristor could, therefore, perform the work of many binary transistors. This would permit faster, more powerful processors and higher-density memory. An additional reduction in power consumption is another outcome, of course, since fewer elements would be needed.

The ability to be either logic or memory, along with the ability to assume multiple states, makes memristors more like neurons in the human brain. This similarity isn’t lost on researchers. The multistate capability, taken to its logical conclusion, means that a memristor could exist in virtually infinite states. Then, memristors could be used as analog, instead of digital elements. Such devices would be able to learn on their own, computer theorists say. In fact, simple memristive circuits have already been used to model the adaptive ability of amoebas.

Efforts are under way to fully map the 100,000 neurons in a fly’s brain, as reported in April’s issue of Nature Biotechnology. Once completed, the fly brain’s “circuitry” could possibly be reverse engineered with memristive circuitry. This would help us to better understand animal intelligence, and hence be able to develop true artificial intelligence. If sufficiently advanced, such computing devices would be able to easily recognize and differentiate between human faces and understand natural human language.

The memristor revolution is coming. HP expects its first commercially available memristive circuits to be available in three years.

HP remains the only direct play for memristive technology for now, but I’m on the lookout for a small upstart in this field that could still deliver substantial gains – I’ll let you know when it comes to light…

Sincerely,
Patrick Cox
Penny Sleuth

June 1, 2010

Memristors: The Next Emergent Technology That Could Make You Wealthy was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Last year, HP made news by demonstrating a practical application of memristance. At the time, I was astonished that the development had occurred so soon after HP’s announcement that it had discovered a way to build memristors. It turns out, though, that Hewlett-Packard’s press relations may be better than its patent claims. This, in turn, could be great news for investors.

HP may have been only the first group to recognize what it had on its hands. Researchers from such varied institutions as the University of Parma in Italy to UC San Diego have also built prototype memristors from polymers and metallic oxides. They too are exploring applications for this exciting new technology and could end up holding important memristor intellectual property.

Multistate Computing and Neural Networks

Nearly all existing commercially available transistor-based technology is capable of assuming only two states per element, either 1 or 0. So by necessity, all calculation is done in binary.

Memristors, because they can assume different states corresponding to different levels of resistance, are multistate elements. This facilitates a much higher data density. Memristor storage density will be at least 10 times that achievable using current transistor-based technology.

Imagine the storage capacity of a large hard drive on the head of a pin. Moreover, memristor memory is nonvolatile. It retains its state even when no power is applied to the circuit. This has tremendous advantages over current memory technologies that lose their data when the power is switched off.

All these unique properties put off the eventual physical limitations imposed upon Moore’s law using current transistor technologies. Unlike current transistor technology, memristance becomes more pronounced and efficient the smaller the element is. In transistors, small size and high density lead to greater power loss and heat production. The opposite is true with memristors. Nanotech-level scaling actually amplifies the memristive properties of the individual elements.

Biological Computing

It’s not only computer scientists who are excited by these developments. Biologists are beginning to realize the potential memristors have to mimic organic or biological computing.

Because many of the properties of memristors are so similar to brain cells they may be used to imitate brain functions. If, as scientists believe, they can be used to mimic synaptic function, they could bring true artificial intelligence much closer.

Recently, researchers have been able to model the learning ability of the amoeba with a simple memristive circuit. According to HP, these circuits can “remember and associate series of events in a manner similar to the way a human brain recognizes patterns.” In other words, the circuits learn.

While HP has grabbed the headlines, such devices are currently being developed for use as nonvolatile resistive memory by various companies. Some, like HP, are probably too big to be breakthrough technology stocks. Samsung is one of the giants working on the technology. On the other hand, Micron Technology and Unity Semiconductor apparently have some patent rights, at least, to memristor technologies. If they’re significant, these companies could be small enough to experience transformational profits that rival Intel’s historic growth.

It is only a matter of time before this new technology begins to break through. We will be monitoring this area for developments and will keep you informed.

For transformational profits,
Patrick Cox

May 12, 2009

Memristive Technologies Could Soon Make You a Bundle was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

The technique itself was developed by BeSang, based in Beaverton, Ore., with the assistance of Stanford University’s nanofabrication researchers. For the first time, BeSang claimed, chips could grow upward, not just outward, without significantly raising costs.

At the time, I doubted implementation would come anytime soon. Apparently, I was wrong. BeSang and Stanford have just announced that their 3-D IC manufacturing process is available for licensing now.

Needless to say, I’ll be watching BeSang and its 25 patents in case it goes public.

My point, however, is that Moore’s Law is going to hold. The number of transistors that can be inexpensively placed on an integrated circuit will continue to double approximately every two years. New technologies and products will continue to emerge.

Moreover, they will yield the kind of profits that come only from breakthrough, transformative industries. Robotics is one of them. Count on it.

Let me give you just one more chip breakthrough set to maintain this breakneck pace. This one could actually be more significant, because it isn’t about transistor density. It is about the way that chips work.

Memristors Coming Soon

Since 1971, computer scientists have theorized about memristors. This hypothetical component would maintain information without electrical currents, but function as dynamic RAM memory.

This is a huge deal. Computers with memristors would be faster and require less power. Booting would be nearly instantaneous. On/off buttons could become irrelevant, except to avoid accidental activation. Battery life for mobile devices, including robots, would be extended significantly.

HP proved that it could, in theory, make these once mythological “fourth components” using new nanotech tools. When I reported its claims, though, I speculated in vague terms about future production. Honestly, I was thinking four or five years out. According to the reliable EETimes, HP Labs will produce prototypes next year. Commercialization is expected to follow quickly.

In the space of months, the IC road map has changed profoundly. Once again, chip designers are going “back to drawing board” to rethink the future of microprocessors. Specific to this issue, memristors, combined with increased chip density and more efficient batteries, are exactly what it will take to move robotics to the next level.

The Incredible Promise of Robotics

Today, there are about one million industrial robots in service. That number is increasing over 10% annually. The international automotive industry depends entirely on robots, as do several other manufacturing fields.

Chip manufacturing, biotech and pharmaceutical companies rely on robotics to perform precise and repetitive functions in environments intolerable to humans. Also relevant to a subject covered in this issue, robotics will be central to the commercialization of stem cell therapies.

Another area of rapid robotic growth is security and defense. Some of the earliest recognizable robots were remote-controlled bomb detonation units. Today, unmanned military vehicles can pilot themselves in hazardous situations. Some are simple devices used for bomb inspections and detonation. Some are sophisticated mobile weapons systems. Many are utility vehicles ranging from self-driving trucks to relatively small “PackBots” that climb stairs, risk tripwires, find land mines and look around corners. Some are armed and can be fired remotely or return fire automatically. Though the public may not think of them as robots, automated missile systems have been around for decades.

I recently found a company that is really set to take advantage of this surge of chip technology and robots. Unfortunately, it’s far too small to include in such a large publication like Penny Sleuth. That’s why I saved it for my Breakthrough Technology Alert subscribers.

For transformational profits,
Patrick Cox
September 16, 2008

Investing in the Chip Revolution was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.