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	<title>Penny Sleuth &#187; James Boric</title>
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	<description>Penny stocks, small-cap stocks, pink sheet stocks and OTCBB coverage by unbiased and independent analysts.</description>
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		<title>It Pays to Be Picky</title>
		<link>http://pennysleuth.com/it-pays-to-be-picky/</link>
		<comments>http://pennysleuth.com/it-pays-to-be-picky/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jan 2008 16:15:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Boric</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Over the Counter Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Penny stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullish on small-caps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[good Value]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Boric]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[little cash]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lowering of Interest Rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[small-cap market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Small-cap Rally]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tons of debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weak Fundamentals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pennysleuth.com/?p=1713</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Irwin Greenstein reports from Baltimore&#8217;s Cultural District&#8230; *** The IPO market is hot again…opening the spigot for a flood of small-cap opportunities in 2005. But why now? Before I answer that question, let me recap 2004&#8242;s extraordinary action. Last year, 205 IPOs raised some $41 billion &#8212; triple the volume of 2003&#8230;and shy of the [...]<p><a href="http://pennysleuth.com/it-pays-to-be-picky/">It Pays to Be Picky</a> was originally featured in the <a href="http://pennysleuth.com">Penny Sleuth</a>. </p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span class="Normal">Irwin Greenstein reports from Baltimore&#8217;s Cultural  District&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">*** The IPO market is hot again…opening the spigot for a  flood of small-cap </span><br />
<span class="Normal">opportunities in 2005. But why  now? Before I answer that question, let me recap 2004&#8242;s extraordinary  action.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Last year, 205 IPOs raised some $41 billion &#8212; triple the  volume of 2003&#8230;and shy of the 249 in the IPO mania of 1999. Unlike the bubble  years, however, companies are more financially solid: 64% of companies that went  public in 2004 were already profitable, compared to 2000, when only 26% were  profitable. And the average 2004 IPO has risen 30% from its offering price &#8212;  the best performance since 1999. That return beat the Dow, Nasdaq and S&amp;P  500.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">OK, so why now? I think that the increased IPO activity  coincides with rising interest rates, which can really hurt small-cap companies.  As lending institutions tighten their requirements for loans to companies with  market caps of $1 billion or less, we&#8217;ll see more small caps turning to the  public market for cash. Alan Greenspan signaled Wall Street far in advance of  the first rate hike, giving the venture capitalists and investment bankers  plenty of time to start filling the IPO pipeline&#8230;and the momentum is certainly  there.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Is this a good thing? From my perspective, the answer is a  resounding yes. Here&#8217;s why. In the 15 years I spent in Silicon Valley before  moving to Baltimore, I saw just about every tech prophecy come true &#8212;  eventually. All that nutty stuff we read about during the bubble, such as  e-commerce, broadband to the home and streaming entertainment, are big hits now  &#8212; long after Wall Street lost patience with many of those money-losing  innovators. Well, I think everyone is wiser now. After all, hindsight is always  20/20.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">But looking ahead, about 80 VC-backed companies have  already registered with the SEC for IPOs in 2005. And we believe that this is  going to be a great year for newly public companies. That&#8217;s why you can expect  to see more coverage in Penny Sleuth of the IPO market as it pertains to  small-cap opportunities. We&#8217;re all looking forward to the extra coverage here at  Penny Sleuth central, and I hope that you are, too.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">*** It&#8217;s 11:46 a.m. &#8212; almost midday. And as I write this,  the big winner (relatively speaking) in this rabid bear market is the small-cap  S&amp;P 600.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">The S&amp;P 600 is down only 2.02%, to 310.98. Compare  that to the S&amp;P 500, which is down 4.73%, the Dow, which has taken a 41.03%  tumble, or the Nasdaq&#8217;s decline of 10.94%. In fact, the S&amp;P 600 is even  beating the leading small-cap index, the Russell 2000, which so far has  registered a decline of 5.26%, to 612.48.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">One reason the S&amp;P 600 is weathering this storm could  be that compared to the Russell 2000, it has more stringent requirements. For  example, S&amp;P 600 criteria include financial viability, liquidity and an  adequate number of shares available for trade &#8212; making it tougher to get on the  index than on the Russell 2000.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">While regular Penny Sleuth readers know that we love the  Russell 2000, it&#8217;s times like this that remind us that the S&amp;P 600 could be  the small-cap index of choice when the bear comes knocking.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">As James talks about in this issue, diversification is  always important.  That&#8217;s why it would be wise to also spread out your  investments across multiple small-cap indices (including the Wilshire 1750).   Each one has different standards for inclusion, and given the nature of stocking  picking the best one can often depend on market conditions.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">*** Speaking of James, he takes to task the chronic  optimists of stock </span><br />
<span class="Normal">commentators&#8230;everything&#8217;s  good, everything&#8217;s great, never a bad year that ends in 5, blah, blah, blah.   Well, steely eyed James sees clouds on the horizon and provides us with sobering  advice. James, pop open that umbrella of yours&#8230;</span><br />
<span class="Normal"><br />
</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong><span class="pny-subhead-black">It Pays to Be Picky</span></strong></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Something just doesn&#8217;t seem right, my friends. I&#8217;ve spent  the last week reading article after article on the small-cap market &#8212; getting  people&#8217;s &#8220;professional&#8221; predictions for 2005. And most analysts are still  calling for another bullish year for small-cap stocks. For  instance&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Professionals from Mesirow Financial&#8217;s Investment  Management and Real Estate divisions say, &#8220;In 2005, we expect to see  high-single-digit returns from the S&amp;P 500. Dividend income will, once  again, be significant as payout ratios continue to rise. The outperformance of  small-cap stocks and value stocks will continue in 2005.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Diane Swonk, chief economist for Mesirow Financial, was  even more optimistic, </span><span class="Normal">describing today&#8217;s economy  as &#8220;virtuous&#8221; and primed for profit growth. And finally, Donald Luskin, writing  for <a href="http://smartmoney.com/">SmartMoney.com</a>, titled his Dec. 31  article, &#8220;Get Ready for Another Strong Year.&#8221; He forecasts that (after a bumpy  start to 2005), &#8220;By spring, stocks will have moved on to new highs.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Jeez, you would think I&#8217;d be ecstatic about these  predictions. But I&#8217;m not. In fact, I think they are all wrong. And you need to  know that. You see, there are two reasons the small-cap rally, which began six  years ago, started in the first place. And neither one of those reasons exists  in today&#8217;s market. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Let me explain&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">By the end of 1999, small-cap stocks were trading for a  30% discount to their larger peers. Throughout the 1990s, investors were dumping  their money into companies like IBM, JDS Uniphase and Sun Microsystems. As a  result, between 1995 and 1999, large caps enjoyed 20%-plus annual returns.  Meanwhile, small caps lagged behind &#8212; big time. In August 1998, the small-cap  market fell 18.3% &#8212; making it one of the worst plunges in over 70 years. Ouch!  But that fiasco led the way for the start of a major buying spree that has  lasted for six years now.</span><br />
<span class="Normal"> </span><br />
<span class="Normal">And the second reason the small-cap rally took off more than half a  decade ago was the lowering of interest rates. Between July 2000 and June 2004,  interest rates fell from 6.5% to 1%. As a result, smaller companies could borrow  money much more cheaply. They had instant access to the capital markets that  they didn&#8217;t have in the early 1990s (when all the money was being lent to the  larger tech companies). And they could grow their own businesses through debt &#8212;  which led to rapid earnings and sales for years to come. For  example&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Earnings for small-cap companies grew a whopping 71% in  2003. That&#8217;s amazing, when you think about it. And because of the tremendous  earnings growth, the Russell 2000 rose 46% in 2003 &#8212; beating every other major  stock index in the United States.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Between 1999 and 2004, the equation for a small-cap rally  was in place: value + low interest rates = small-cap rally. And what a rally it  was. But that equation has changed now. And all the talking heads who proclaim  2005 is going to be another banner year for all small-cap stocks are out of  their minds. (But that&#8217;s still not to say there won&#8217;t be a lot of great  opportunities &#8212; there will. And I&#8217;ll explain in a second.)</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Unlike in 1999, small-cap stocks aren&#8217;t cheap. In fact,  they are more expensive than large caps now. The average company on the Russell  2000 trades for 21.5 times earnings. By comparison, the average large-cap  company on the Russell 1000 trades for 19 times earnings.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">And in case you haven&#8217;t noticed, interest rates (although  still historically low at 2.25%) are on the rise. Alan Greenspan and his gang  have raised rates in each of the last five Fed meetings. And general consensus  is that rates will continue to rise in 2005 &#8212; eventually topping out between  3.5% and 4.25% by the end of December.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Sure, those rates are still low. But that&#8217;s not the point.  The formula that was in place in 1999 has changed. Small-cap stocks aren&#8217;t  cheaper than their large-cap peers anymore. And the interest rates are rising –  slowly making it more expensive for smaller companies to borrow money and grow  through debt. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">The HUGE advantages that small-cap companies had a few  years ago are gone.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">So is it time to panic? </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">No. This rally isn&#8217;t going to come crashing down in the  next month. It will correct a bit &#8212; which is happening now. So you should make  sure you are properly diversified. You shouldn&#8217;t have more than 10-25% of your  portfolio in small-cap stocks. And you need to consider what kinds of small-cap  stocks you are holding onto. Obviously, the stocks that will crash the hardest  are those with little in the way of cash, a ton of debt and weak fundamentals.  Those are the kinds of companies that will need to borrow even more money in the  future &#8212; just to stay afloat. Problem is, they won&#8217;t get that money as lenders  become pickier and pickier about who gets their loans.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Still, let me remind you&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">There are over 4,000 small-cap stocks to pick through  today. I guarantee hundreds of them will rise in 2005. This isn&#8217;t a time to  panic. Rather, it&#8217;s a time to be picky. And if you stick with Penny Stock  Fortunes (</span><span class="Normal"><a href="http://www.psfortunes.com/">www.psfortunes.com</a></span><span class="Normal">) and Penny Sleuth&#8230;we&#8217;ll help you find those companies worth  owning.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Yours for Penny Sleuth,</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">James Boric</span></p>
<p><em>January 11, 2005</em></p>
<p><a href="http://pennysleuth.com/it-pays-to-be-picky/">It Pays to Be Picky</a> was originally featured in the <a href="http://pennysleuth.com">Penny Sleuth</a>. </p>
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		<title>Our Small-Cap Predictions for 2005</title>
		<link>http://pennysleuth.com/our-small-cap-predictions-for-2005/</link>
		<comments>http://pennysleuth.com/our-small-cap-predictions-for-2005/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Dec 2004 21:35:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Penny Sleuth Contributor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Penny stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Five Companies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Five Small-cap Rallies]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Jaclyn inc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Boric]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lj Intl]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Outside of the US]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pennysleuth.com/?p=1705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Irwin Greenstein reports from the home of &#8220;The Star-Spangled Banner&#8221;&#8230; *** Since this is the last issue of the year, on behalf of the entire Penny Sleuth team, I wish everyone a happy, healthy and prosperous 2005. I&#8217;d also like to express my deep gratitude for your participation in making Penny Sleuth an enormous success [...]<p><a href="http://pennysleuth.com/our-small-cap-predictions-for-2005/">Our Small-Cap Predictions for 2005</a> was originally featured in the <a href="http://pennysleuth.com">Penny Sleuth</a>. </p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span class="Normal">Irwin Greenstein reports from the home of &#8220;The  Star-Spangled Banner&#8221;&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">*** Since this is the last issue of the year, on behalf of  the entire Penny Sleuth team, I wish everyone a happy, healthy and prosperous  2005. I&#8217;d also like to express my deep gratitude for your participation in  making Penny Sleuth an enormous success since we started publishing it, on Oct.  12, 2004.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">For those of us who championed the small-cap market this  year, let me offer a New Year&#8217;s toast. I raise my glass of the bubbly Widow  Clicquot for having the intelligence, guts and intuition to buck the  know-it-alls, naysayers and scaredy cats by riding out tough second and third  quarters&#8230;only to watch the Russell 2000 small-cap index rally in the fourth  quarter by hitting an all-time high of 651.72 on Dec. 27. Wow!</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">*** That&#8217;s why I&#8217;m celebrating with an incredible  opportunity. It&#8217;s an 80% discount on Carl Waynberg&#8217;s new GRIP service. This  offer expires TOMORROW. So please take advantage of our great introductory  price&#8230;because after Jan. 1, you&#8217;ll have to pay full price for this exclusive  screening tool that tracks &#8220;jumper stocks&#8221; &#8212; the most explosive small-cap  stocks in the world. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">The GRIP identifies the tiny companies that trade on the  forgotten OTC Bulletin Board and Pink Sheets exchanges, and eventually &#8220;jump&#8221; to  the Nasdaq, AMEX or NYSE. And when they jump, investors can make a mountain of  money. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Membership to The GRIP is extremely limited. So if you  haven&#8217;t read your GRIP report yet, check your e-mail inbox now. Carl is the  genuine article. He has made as much as 757% on a single pick by identifying the  kinds of promising companies that are snubbed by the Wall Street  establishment.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">I&#8217;m urging you sign up BEFORE Jan. 1. That&#8217;s why I&#8217;m  including a special link to this valuable information&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal"><a title="WGRPEC16-Sleuth" href="http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/GRP/WGRPEC16">http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/GRP/WGRPEC16</a></span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">With only one day left, don&#8217;t leave money on the table. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">*** OK, now for the fireworks. James wraps up this issue  by offering us his insightful and powerful outlook for 2005. His sage advice and  common-sense predictions make it surprisingly simple to continue our winning  streak into next year. In addition, he picks the hot small-cap companies to  watch like a hawk&#8230;using the same criteria that have made investors profits of  86.7%, 172.7% and 94.4% during 2004.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: left"><span class="Normal">Ring in the new year, James&#8230;</span><br />
<strong><span class="Normal"><br />
</span></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong><span class="pny-subhead-black">Our Small-Cap Predictions for 2005</span></strong></p>
<p><span class="Normal">It&#8217;s time to get out the crystal ball, look into the  future and answer the question every small-cap investor has on his or her  mind&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Will 2005 be a good year for small-cap stocks?</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">It will be for some, dear reader. But let me warn you, it  will also be a terrible year for others. You see, right now is a critical time,  a tipping point for the small-cap market. As it stands in this last week of  2004, small-cap stocks have enjoyed a five-year run &#8212; in which they have beaten  the pants off of their large-cap counterparts.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Since 1999, the Russell 2000 has risen from 451 to 649.  That&#8217;s a 43% total rise &#8212; or an annual compounded gain of 7.55%. Meanwhile, in  that same time frame the S&amp;P 500 (which houses the largest companies on  Earth) has dropped from 1,387 to 1,211 &#8212; a pathetic minus 12.7% overall return  and an annual compounded loss of 2.67%.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">This past five-year stretch has been one of the most  lucrative times ever for small-cap investors. In fact&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Dating back to 1932, there have only been five extended  small-cap rallies like this one. So why on earth am I hesitant about predicting  anything other than a raging bull market for 2005?</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">From a value perspective, small-cap stocks have almost  caught up to their large-cap mates. And when that happens, investors will likely  take money out of the small-cap market and invest in larger, less volatile  companies. Check out the numbers for yourself&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">The average small-cap company trading on the Russell 2000  is selling for 2.37 times book value and 20.88 times earnings. Meanwhile, the  average large-cap on the S&amp;P 500 trades for 3.01 times book and 21.4 times  earnings. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">One could argue that small-cap stocks are still slightly  more attractive than their larger peers. On a price-to-book basis, they are  trading for a 27% discount. And on a price-to-earnings basis, small caps are  selling for a 2.5% discount. But let me remind you&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Historically, companies are considered overvalued above  1.5 times book and 17 times earnings. So by that measure, the average small-cap  stock is NOT a bargain anymore. They just appear cheap compared to the  ridiculously priced large-caps. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Folks, now is NOT the time to be chasing overpriced  small-cap companies with no real earnings growth, no real sales growth and  extremely high multiples. I predict 2005 will be a year of reckoning and  heartache for investors who do.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">2005 will be a year in which investors will do well to  focus on basic, boring </span><span class="Normal">fundamentals. Those who  invest in companies with top- and bottom-line growth, year over year and quarter  over quarter, will walk away far better off that those who invest blindly in the  &#8220;hot stock&#8221; of the day. And those investors who focus on earnings growth of 10%,  25% or more will outperform the rest of the market handily.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">If you&#8217;re looking for some specific stocks that I expect  could outperform in 2005, check these out&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">I ran a scan of all the companies (trading on a major  exchange) that were growing at least 10% quarter over quarter and year over year  and trading for less than 1.5 times sales, 1.5 times book value and 17 times  earnings. I figured these are the kinds of companies you want to own in 2005. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Guess how many companies (out of the almost 6,000 I had to  choose from) fit the criteria?</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">FIVE! That&#8217;s it. Five lousy companies. And four of them  were small-caps with a market cap of $1 billion or less.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">In the spirit of making predictions, I&#8217;d bet these four  small-cap companies will </span><br />
<span class="Normal">outperform the market in  2005&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">1) Jaclyn, Inc. (JLN:AMEX)</span><br />
<span class="Normal">2) LJ Intl., Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=JADE%3ANASDAQ">JADE:NASDAQ</a>)</span><br />
<span class="Normal">3) P&amp;F Industries, Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=PFIN%3ANASDAQ">PFIN:NASDAQ</a>)</span><br />
<span class="Normal">4) Span-America Medical Systems (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=SPAN%3ANASDAQ">SPAN:NASDAQ</a>)</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">(By the way, the one large-cap that came up was  foreign-based Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=SHI%3ANYSE">SHI:NYSE</a>) &#8212; a Chinese crude  oil processor!)</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">We&#8217;ll see how these stocks perform over the next 12  months. But fundamentally, they are sound businesses. They are all growing and  trading for very fair multiples. And I believe it will be these kinds of  companies that will be good investments in 2005.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">On to the next prediction&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Small-cap investors who are patient and buy stocks that  the insiders are buying will outperform the rest of the market.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">I preach it all the time, but it&#8217;s true. The people who  run the businesses know better than anyone else when times will be good &#8212; and  when stock prices should rise. I predict investors who follow the smart money in  2005 will come out ahead. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">So what are the insiders buying now?</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">There are seven small-cap stocks worth keeping an eye on  as we head into the new year. In each case, insiders have bought at least a  million shares in the last six months &#8212; and the total insider buying outweighs  insider selling tenfold or more. Here are the candidates to watch&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">1) Alloy, Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ALOY%3ANASDAQ">ALOY:NASDAQ</a>)</span><br />
<span class="Normal">2) Collins &amp; Aikman Corp. (CKC:NYSE)</span><br />
<span class="Normal">3) Concord Camera Corp. (LENSE:NASDAQ)</span><br />
<span class="Normal">4) Incyte Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INCY%3ANASDAQ">INCY:NASDAQ</a>)</span><br />
<span class="Normal">5) Inhibitex, Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INHX%3ANASDAQ">INHX:NASDAQ</a>)</span><br />
<span class="Normal">6) Myogen, Inc. (MYOG:NASDAQ)</span><br />
<span class="Normal">7) Valence Technology, Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=VLNC%3ANASDAQ">VLNC:NASDAQ</a>)</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Again, look for stocks with heavy insider buying to reign  supreme as 2005 unfolds.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Finally, my last prediction&#8230;</span><br />
<span class="Normal"> </span><br />
<span class="Normal">Small-cap investors who are willing  to look outside the United States have a chance to outperform everyone &#8212;  including the highly paid Wall Street analysts. Each year, the top performing  foreign market beats the U.S. market &#8212; hands down. For instance&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">The best performing foreign markets from 1995-1998 were  Switzerland, Spain, Portugal and Finland. Anyone who was wise enough to have  invested in those markets could have walked away with gains of 45%, 41.3%, 43.9%  and 122.6%. And they also would have beaten the U.S. markets by an average of  31.4% a year!</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">And in 2005, the same will be true. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Countries like India and Mexico could well lead the way.  Heck, the small-cap market in India is already in full bull mode. I&#8217;ve reported  in previous Sleuth alerts that Indian <a href="http://pennysleuth.com">penny stocks</a> have risen as much as 1,400%  this year. I expect that trend will continue. I like India as a long-term  investment for the next 10 years &#8212; which is exactly why I hopped on a plane and  spent nine days in Mumbai this past June.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Who knows what opportunities will present themselves in  2005? I don&#8217;t have a crystal ball, dear reader. But I do know two  things&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Those people who take their time and invest in solid  companies (with strong </span><br />
<span class="Normal">fundamentals and strong  growth numbers) will outperform the majority of the rank-and-file investing  public. And those investors who are willing to look outside the U.S. borders for  opportunities will bring home the lion&#8217;s share of profits.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Keep an eye on Mexico and India.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">We&#8217;ll see if any of my predictions come true. To find out,  stay tuned to Penny Sleuth every Tuesday and Friday. Here&#8217;s to a fantastic  2005.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Cheers,</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">James Boric</span></p>
<p><em>December 31, 2004</em></p>
<p><a href="http://pennysleuth.com/our-small-cap-predictions-for-2005/">Our Small-Cap Predictions for 2005</a> was originally featured in the <a href="http://pennysleuth.com">Penny Sleuth</a>. </p>
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		<title>The 21 Minutes That Sparked a 3,631% Run-Up</title>
		<link>http://pennysleuth.com/the-21-minutes-that-sparked-a-3631-run-up/</link>
		<comments>http://pennysleuth.com/the-21-minutes-that-sparked-a-3631-run-up/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Oct 2004 17:32:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Boric</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Penny stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[4kids Entertainment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Boric]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pokemon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Short-term Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unknown Small Caps]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pennysleuth.com/?p=1655</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Penny Champion James Boric Ponders a Common Small-Cap Question in His Not-So-Plush Baltimore Office… *** “Isn’t investing in penny stocks about the same as gambling in Vegas?” my longtime buddy John asked last night in a 45-minute phone conversation. Poor John. He didn’t deserve what he got next. For 20 minutes straight, I ranted and [...]<p><a href="http://pennysleuth.com/the-21-minutes-that-sparked-a-3631-run-up/">The 21 Minutes That Sparked a 3,631% Run-Up</a> was originally featured in the <a href="http://pennysleuth.com">Penny Sleuth</a>. </p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span class="Normal">Penny Champion James Boric Ponders a Common Small-Cap  Question in His Not-So-Plush Baltimore Office…</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">*** “Isn’t investing in <a href="http://pennysleuth.com">penny stocks</a> about the same as  gambling in Vegas?” my longtime buddy John asked last night in a 45-minute phone  conversation.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Poor John. He didn’t deserve what he got next. For 20  minutes straight, I ranted and raved about the misconceptions people have about  small-cap, aka “penny,” stocks. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">“It’s BS, man. Everyone grows up hearing about the same  large blue chip companies – the Intels, the IBMs and the GMs of the world. Those  are the companies your dad tells you about when you’re 10. Those are the  companies you read about every damn day in the paper. And those are the  companies you see on the Lou Dobbs TV show night in and night out. It pi#$es me  off. But guess what…</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">“Intel is down 30% this year, IBM is down 2% and GM is  down 25%,” I said as my face was turning a bright red and I was pumping my fists  in the air. “Investing in those companies is like gambling. They are mature.  They’ve been through their growth phase. And they aren’t likely to double your  money anytime soon.”</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">To John’s absolute horror, I continued…</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">“People in general don’t know anything about small-cap  stocks. They don’t read about them every morning. They don’t grow up hearing  about them – except the one story of their crazy uncle that lost a fortune  because he bet the farm on one startup company that went up in  flames.”</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">And that’s too bad…</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Because people fear what they don’t understand. And more  often than not, they don’t understand a thing about small-cap companies. If only  investors knew that…</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">– Upward of 80% of true value stocks on the market right  now are small-cap stocks.</span><br />
<span class="Normal">– The best investors of  all time (including Buffett, Graham, Price and Templeton) all invested in  small-cap stocks and built their fortunes on undiscovered gems of the  day.</span><br />
<span class="Normal">– And the majority of the best performers on  the market right NOW are small-cap stocks.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Eventually, I calmed down. John (who lives in  Massachusetts) and I talked about the Red Sox sweeping the Cardinals in the  World Series. We both had a few good laughs about the Boston Curse and then hung  up.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">I get fired up, dear reader! But I can’t help it.  Small-cap companies will eventually grow into large ones. Not all. But the ones  that do will make a few investors (those who understand the small-cap argument)  very wealthy. And I’m not the only one who knows this to be true… </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">*** On Wednesday, I got an e-mail from a friend and  colleague, Chris Mayer. Chris is the editor of Fleet Street Letter – a true  value-oriented letter. He looks for companies with what he calls “Tangible  Assets That Sweat.” As Chris explains…</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">“Tangible assets are simply things we can touch and feel,  things we can see and count. These investments include things like buildings,  timber, cash, certain machinery, land, vineyards and other unique assets.  Industries that are not going away and that are in no danger of the next  generation of competitors making them obsolete.”</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">In good markets and bad, companies with real assets not  only survive, but thrive. And Chris, like myself, believes very strongly in  small-cap stocks. In fact, he is bullish on a small-cap Asian company right now.  Check out Chris’ note to me…</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">“James, I recently recommended a real gem of a small-cap  company to Fleet readers – a company that caters to the wealthiest crust of the  world’s wealthiest people. Its earnings should increase by 30% this year. Best  of all, the stock is cheap. You can get a 33% discount to net asset value by  picking up shares in today’s market.”</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Chris knows that the true growth and value companies tend  to be small-caps. In fact, he recently wrote a free report about one company  that could rise four to six times over in the next few years. Check it out: <a href="http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/FST/catB12">http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/FST/catB12</a></span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">*** MSN Money once again published the top 10 performing  stocks (trading for $5 or more) of the week. And seven of the 10 winners came  from the ranks of the “unknown” small-cap market – with shares of CFC Intl.  (CFCI:NASDAQ) leading the way, rising 54.5%. Here are the other nine for your  researching pleasure…</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">– Interchange Corp. (INCX:NASDAQ), market cap of $70.12  million, rose 47.1%</span><br />
<span class="Normal">– Laserscope (LSCP:NASDAQ),  market cap of $529.9 million, rose 39.9%</span><br />
<span class="Normal">– WMC  Resources Ltd. (WMC:NYSE), market cap of $5.8 billion, rose  38.4%</span><br />
<span class="Normal">– Intier Automotive, Inc. (IAIA:NASDAQ),  market cap of $1.4 billion, rose 36.9%</span><br />
<span class="Normal">–  MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR:NASDAQ), market cap of $997.5 million, rose  36.9%</span><br />
<span class="Normal">– Webco Industries, Inc. (WEB:AMEX), market  cap of $45.5 million, rose 35.8%</span><br />
<span class="Normal">– Competitive  Technologies (CTT:AMEX), market cap of $35.1 million, rose 35.7%</span><br />
<span class="Normal">– Decoma Intl. (DECA:NASDAQ), market cap of $897.7 million, rose  33.9%</span><br />
<span class="Normal">– Tesma Intl., Inc. (TSMA:NASDAQ), market cap  of $1.04 billion, rose 33.9%</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">The stats don’t lie, folks. Last week, nine of the top 10  performing stocks were small caps. This week, it’s seven. It’ll be a majority  next week, too. I’m willing to bet on it. And who knows which one of these  stocks will rise for weeks and weeks before stopping? </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Maybe one will. Maybe two. Maybe none. We’ll have to see.  But I do know one thing: There are tiny companies floating around the market  right now that are about to take off. Some will rise for years and years on end  – no matter what the rest of the market does. And to show you exactly the kind  of profits that exists for patient small-cap investors, check out this case  study of one unknown company that tipped from a local sensation to an  international phenomenon…</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong><span class="pny-subhead-black">The 21 Minutes That Sparked a 3,631%  Run-Up</span></strong></p>
<p><span class="Normal">It was Dec. 17, 1997 – 6:30 p.m. Anxious school kids all  over Japan were huddled around their TV sets to watch the 38th-ever Pokemon  episode – “Computer Warrior Polygon.” It seemed harmless enough…</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">The main character, Pikachu, had a mission. He had to go  inside a computer and stop a deadly “virus bomb” from being dropped by the evil  Polygon. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">The anticipated confrontation between good and evil came  to a head 21 minutes into the show. Pikachu and Polygon met face to face to  battle. Not wasting any time, Pikachu used his electric powers to destroy  Polygon and stop the bomb from being detonated. It was an intense fight. And to  heighten that intensity, the directors rapidly flashed a series of blue and red  lights on the screen.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Within minutes of the battle airing on TV, hospitals were  flooded with calls. Pokemon viewers were suddenly suffering from acute nausea,  blackouts and epileptic fits. There were even kids who entered into trance-like  states, similar to hypnosis. One little girl described her sudden illness like  this: “As I was watching the blue and red lights flashing on the screen, I felt  my body becoming tense. I do not remember what happened after that.” </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">It turns out the combination of the colors, the flashing  effect on the screen and the duration of the fight scene created an optical  stimulus that triggered instant attacks in thousands of Japanese viewers –  leaving many temporarily helpless.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Within hours, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and  Welfare was investigating the Pokemon episode. TV Tokyo issued an apology and  took the cartoon off the air. Even Japan’s Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto  weighed in with comments on the unfortunate situation.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Clearly, this marked the end of Pokemon, right? I mean,  come on. This cartoon sent a wave of panic over all of Japan. Twelve thousand  kids experienced some form of temporary illness. And 618 children were  hospitalized – suffering from bouts of memory loss, stiffening limbs and  epileptic-type fits.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Pokemon had its 15 minutes of fame. Now it was over? </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">WRONG!</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong><span class="pny-subhead-black">Lovable Monsters</span></strong></p>
<p><span class="Normal">By April 1998, four months after the infamous fight scene,  Japanese kids and parents demanded Pokemon re-air. They missed the lovable  monsters. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Sure enough, Pokemon was brought back. And by year’s end,  it was the third most watched show in Japan!</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">The obvious question that comes to mind is how could  parents actually allow (let alone demand) Pokemon to re-air? The answer is  simple. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Pokemon was an engaging show. It had children sitting on  the edge of their seats wondering what would happen next. Plus, with its long  list of characters, animation style and timely topics, Pokemon proved to be a  tremendous learning tool for young kids. Seven-year-olds could rattle off more  facts about Pokemon than they could about any other subject – period. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Pokemon had appeal. And in 1999, it tipped from a Japanese  sensation to a worldwide phenomenon – it was introduced to the United States on  Nov. 22. The rest is history. </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Today, there are Pokemon video games, action figures,  DVDs, CDs and, of course, the TV show. The company that owns the rights to  Pokemon, 4Kids Entertainment, Inc., went from a $739,138 company in 1997 to a  $38.8 million company in 2000. Its stock price shot up from $1 to a  split-adjusted high of $37.31 in that three-year span. Investors who recognized  the power of the Pokemon monsters made a killing. And you can too.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">At $18.48 a share, it’s probably now too late to invest in  4Kids Entertainment. But there are hundreds of other stocks on the market today  that are just like 4Kids was in 1998 – on the verge of tipping from a small  business to an internationally recognized corporation. And historically, these  are the most lucrative stocks to invest in – far better than even the biggest  blue chip stocks.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Unknown small-cap companies like 4Kids Entertainment  average about 12% returns year in and year out. By comparison, large blue chip  companies will give you about a 10% return on your investment. Big deal, right?  We’re talking about two points. Who cares? </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Before you decide not to care, consider this…</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Over an average five-year holding period, a basket of  small-cap stocks will give you a nice 84% return on your money. A similar basket  of large-cap stocks will give you only 47%. And the longer you are willing to  hold, the bigger the difference between small- and large-cap returns.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Over a 10-year holding period, small-cap stocks have been  good for a 197% return – compared to 119% for their large-cap counterparts. Hold  for 20 years, and your unknown, never-talked-about small-cap stocks will average  762% returns – more than twice as much as the highly touted, often-publicized  blue chip stocks.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">And if you really have time on your side, you should know  this…</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Over a 35-year holding period, small-cap stocks have  ALWAYS outperformed large-cap stocks. Always.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Of course, investing in small-cap stocks can be a risky  business – especially in the short term. Some companies will go out of business  – and their stocks will fall to nothing. But others will go on to make you  3,631% profits in three years – like 4Kids Entertainment did between 1997 and  2000. The question you need to ask yourself is…</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Is short-term volatility worth it for the long-term  profits? </span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Those investors who bailed on 4Kids Entertainment in  December 1997 took a 17% loss when Pokemon was pulled off the air. But more  importantly, they missed out on 3,631% profits over the next three years. That’s  hard to swallow. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if those people experienced  acute nausea, stiffening of the limbs and the occasional epileptic fit every  time they happened to flip past the latest Pokemon episode. Only this time I  guarantee it wasn’t from the flashing red and blue lights…</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Regards,</span><br />
<span class="Normal">James  Boric</span></p>
<p><em>October 29, 2004</em></p>
<p><a href="http://pennysleuth.com/the-21-minutes-that-sparked-a-3631-run-up/">The 21 Minutes That Sparked a 3,631% Run-Up</a> was originally featured in the <a href="http://pennysleuth.com">Penny Sleuth</a>. </p>
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