In the last year, my Resource Trader Alert readers have already had the chance to book 143%, 148%, even 200% gains thanks to the commodities market. And in the current economic climate, as commodity prices start to heat up once again, the profit potential is amazing.

Here are the resource plays that I see rocketing right now…

Gold and Silver are leading the markets higher with the decline in the U.S. Dollar.  The greenback is at its lowest levels in since September 2008.  Gold is solidly above $1000 an ounce and looks positioned to easily make new all time highs on a course to $1200, from my projections.

Silver has made an impressive rally as well – one that I see continuing into the upper teens.

Recently I’ve been concerned about the lack of recent strength in Crude compared to new highs in stocks and metals.  Last week, that disconnect was repaired with a 5% move in prices putting oil solidly above $70 a barrel again. And it looks like oil hasn’t stopped its ascent either…

More Fuel for Higher Market Prices

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) did a good job of pushing oil prices up this summer. While OPEC managed to boost oil prices in the last six months, at current levels black gold is still a far cry from where it was a year ago – and where it could be again soon. This from Bloomberg:

“OPEC’s success in more than doubling oil prices since a five-year low in December will probably persuade ministers to maintain production quotas after this week’s meeting.

“Reducing shipments beyond record cutbacks last year would endanger the global economic recovery, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ president said last week. Oil rose to $75 a barrel on Aug. 25, the price Saudi Arabian King Abdullah says is fair for consumers and producers.”

A major flaw in the governments’ unfair obsession with speculators is the failure to acknowledge the role of OPEC in energy prices.  They are a cartel!  Traders can buy and sell but only OPEC colludes to determine price levels.  Until hybrid cars, solar and geothermal technology, and algae fuel replace black gold we can fight the battle for financial gains.

We’ll continue to do just that.

It ALL comes back to commodities,
Alan Knuckman

September 14, 2009

What You Need to Know About the Future of Silver, Gold and Oil was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

The first is to have at least 5-10% of your portfolio invested in precious metals. (Or more, if it helps you sleep at night.) That’s gold, G-O-L-D. Or silver, S-I-L-V-E-R. Take delivery. Don’t entrust your gold and silver to somebody else. An ETF like streetTRACKS Gold (GLD: NYSE ARCA) is good for trading in your account. But it ain’t real gold. It’s a CLAIM on somebody else’s gold. And somebody else might say “no” one of these days.

This is Gold 101: For absolute monetary safety, you want real metal under your control. Remember the old expression, “Gold is money.” Some people — economists, mostly — disagree with that. OK, buy their gold. Smile. Say thank you. Walk away briskly with the gold. Don’t look back.

Here’s the second: Accumulate positions in solid, cash-rich gold miners. Sure, some of the junior mining guys are great speculations. Eventually, the really good explorers and mine developers will get bought out by the large companies. That’s how it works. Eventually. But for now, especially if you are just getting into owning gold miners, go with the ones that have large reserves, strong operations and plenty of cash flow.

Here are some of the best gold miners. Look at AngloGold Ashanti (AU: NYSE), Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM: NYSE), Goldcorp (GG: NYSE), Kinross Gold Corp (KGC: NYSE), or Yamana Gold (AUY: NYSE).

I like all of these companies. All of them have good management, reserves, operations, technical ability, cash flow and sheets. Are there any risks? Yes, the stock prices tend to track the price for gold. So if the price of gold falls, these stocks take the hit.

Also, if the stock market has another round of selling, the gold miners may go down in the suction. That’s bad. What happens is that when the market tumbles, some players have to raise cash in a hurry. So they sell their winners, which of late have included many gold miners. Or their broker sells them out at the end of a trading session to meet a margin call. So moving down with the market is a chance we’re taking by owning shares in any stocks at all. Even owning good gold miners has risk.

The third thing you ought to do is be sure to assemble positions in good, solid energy plays. I noted above that gold is money. Let me add that energy is wealth. Really, it’s hard to do very much in this world without energy supplies. You can live in a cave and freeze your butt off, maybe. So the view from my perch is that well-run companies with energy reserves and good cash flow ought to hold up over the long term.

Until we meet again,
Byron King

April 9, 2009

Three Important Pieces of Advice from a Gold Bug was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

That’s why the greatest inflation fighter in the world is under stress. Of course, we’re talking about gold. Gold is– and always has been– the safest place to put your cash. It has been traded as currency, stockpiled to backup paper money (think Fort Knox), and hedge spend-happy governments. Today, its hedging attribute is important.

Over the past few months, it’s become more and more difficult to buy physical gold. Even if you do locate it, what you actually pay is quite a bit more than its spot price.

In many cases, these buyers were willing to spend up to 25% more for gold than its value. That’s like your broker taking a quarter for every $1 share you buy.

So, if gold is too expensive, where can investors turn? Well, there’s always gold’s little brother…

Silver is not commonly thought of as an inflationary hedging tool. That is, until times get tough. And I don’t think you can find too many times tougher than right now.

Silver is often referred to as “the poor man’s gold”. We call it opportunity. You see, during the 1978-1980 precious metals rally, silver showed up late. Almost all of the large gains in silver came in the last few months.

We see the same events unfolding this time around. As we pointed out in the past, gold has always traded for about 16 times as much as silver, until the past few decades. Currently, the ratio sits around 71. When this number falls, silver booms.

Macroeconomics and ratios aside, there is one final reason we expect an enormous silver rally…

About 3 out of every 5 ounces of silver come from base metal mines. Roughly 28% of all silver comes from copper mines and another 32% comes from lead/zinc mines. Both of these sources are decreasing — and in some cases, completely shutting down — production due to the overall commodity market.

Only 10% of all silver comes from gold mines, which leaves just 30% of the total market to pure silver plays like Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp., Hecla Mining, and Pan American Silver. These serious cuts in production, gives us pure silver investors the inside track to cornering the silver market.

We are seeing a perfect storm brewing in the silver market. If you get in now, you might just beat the rush…

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

March 17, 2009

How You Can Win with Silver was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Meanwhile, the NASDAQ has been holding much stronger. While it too has pulled back, it hasn’t done so near as much as the other indexes. But then again, the NASDAQ doesn’t have the toxic waste the other two indexes have either. Also, the NASDAQ has formed another bullish pullback off highs pattern (POH) as shown below:

But What About Gold?

About the time you hear everyone on TV pounding the table on gold and you start to hear the words: Safe Haven Buying for days on end you know you’re near the end of the run. Why? Its emotional money saying “UH OH– the sky really is falling, I gotta get some of this” (AFTER The fact of course).

This tells us we are near a stall point. There is an old adage that has served us technicians well over the years and that is:

“More often than not when everyone is talking about it, that’s about the time it rolls over…”

Don’t follow the herd! We all know what happened to those who followed the conventional Wall Street herd right? They added 7 years to their time horizon window just to get back to where they were in 2007.

While Gold MAY be working its way higher over time, technically it’s overbought and at resistance. While we’re not saying sell it, we are saying expect a pullback. Take a look at the chart below:

Notice how it is bumping up against resistance. Also, notice that the full stohcastics are overbought? Not time to jump on the bandwagon for now.

Just remember the market has a funny way of letting those who have to have it actually have it — in more ways than one, we might add.

Sincerely,
David Grandey
AllAboutTrends.net

February 23, 2009

Is It Time for a Breakout? was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Inflation is the silent predator that’s constantly stalking your retirement savings.  Normally, you have to outpace inflation to stay ahead of the game, and realize any significant returns. But, in some cases, inflation can be good for your investments.

Today we’ve found five penny stocks that could actually rise in value as the dollar falls.

With the Treasury printing money like its going out of style, and with the bailouts ongoing, the government is in danger of creating a huge inflationary bounce back in the wake of this economic crisis.

So, how can penny stock investors profit from the pending inflation?  Well, why don’t we take a look at what gold did yesterday:

The spot price of gold jumped from $840 to near $860 after the rate cut was announced yesterday.  The gold rally continue this morning, with gold rising to as much as $880.  In less than 24 hours, the spot price of gold increased by roughly 4.76%

Take a look at what our colleague Ed Bugos, editor of Gold & Options Trader , said recently about gold:

“The fundamentals are significantly bullish for gold. I’d like to say they are bearish for the dollar, but in truth, they are increasingly bearish for all paper currencies. Outside of the Bank of Japan, everyone is inflating madly.”

Higher inflation means higher gold prices. It only make sense that if there are more dollars in circulation, and each dollar is worth less, than it will take more dollars to buy an ounce of gold.

Since Dec. 5, when the price of gold fell below $760 per ounce, it has increased an astounding $120. That’s a 15.79% gain in a matter of only 12 days.

Now is a great time for penny stock investors to buy up stock in gold miners. Many of these gold stocks have been slammed over the past few months, and they can now be picked up at extremely cheap prices.

Our friend Dan Amoss, editor of Strategic Short Report , suggests that investors take a look at precious metal stocks as the inflationary storm approaches. “How can you profit from this unprecedented inflation,” Dan asked, “By owning precious metals and precious metals stocks.”

As the dollar becomes weaker, and gold prices continue to rise, gold miners could see a huge boost in their share price.  Below are five small cap miners with a share price below $10 and with a market cap under $1 billion:

• Apollo Gold Corporation (AGT: AMEX) is involved in the acquisition, exploration and development of gold deposits, with current projects in the United States, Canada, and Mexico
• Aurizon Mines Ltd (AZK: AMEX) is a Canadian gold producer focused on developing its site in northwestern Quebec.  Aurizon is also conducting the exploration of three additional gold projects in the Quebec region.
• Fronteer Development Group Inc. (FRG: AMEX) is another Canadian-based gold exploration company.  In addition to its Canadian projects, Fronteer also has sites in Nevada and Turkey.
• Ivanhoe Mines Limited (IVN: NYSE) is an international miner focused on the Asia Pacific region.  Ivanhoe is currently exploring multiple sites in China and Mongolia.
• Minco Gold Corporation (ADR) (MGH: AMEX) is involved in the acquisition and development of gold properties in China.  At this time, Minco has five gold projects throughout China.

So, check out these miners for yourself and see what you think.  Feel free to post your thoughts on these companies in the comments section, as well as any other gold miners you might come across.

Best Regards,

John Schuler
December 17, 2008

Gold Penny Stocks should bounce after Fed’s Rate Cut was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Since then, banks and brokerage stocks were punished. Energy and material stocks have soared-thanks to the Fed’s inflation campaign. Fed officials have taken their ability to devalue the U.S. dollar to new heights. Sure, it’s recovered slightly. But, what collateral backs today’s dollar? Mostly mortgage securities that nobody wants — as if Treasury bond collateral weren’t bad enough.

Despite the latest “reports,” current trends still have room to run. Just consider Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Those shareholders could be effectively wiped out by endless equity offerings as early as next year. The mountain of debt holders and bond insurance policyholders comes first.

Now, it’s possible that the federal government could issue hundreds of billions in new Treasuries to officially guarantee Fannie’s and Freddie’s liabilities. If no one lines up to buy these bonds, the Fed could monetize them. Such a scenario could herald a return to double-digit long-term interest rates and a collapse in confidence in paper money — demanding a new monetary system. We live in interesting times. Billionaire currency speculator George Soros thinks we’ve just entered the ugly side of a “super bubble.”

I wrote about George Soros’ investing framework in the August 2007 Strategic Investment. Here’s the excerpt on Soros:

The growth of securitization has truly altered the global economy… One negative consequence is that financial markets are starting to shape the destiny of the real economy, not the other way around. Storied currency speculator George Soros was one of the first to speak publicly about the phenomenon of markets shaping economies. He calls it the theory of “reflexivity” and described it when testifying in front of Congress in 1994:

“The generally accepted theory is that financial markets tend toward equilibrium and, on the whole, discount the future correctly. I operate using a different theory, according to which financial markets cannot possibly discount the future correctly, because they do not merely discount the future; they help to shape it.”

Here’s reflexivity at work: As a company’s stock grows more coveted by wild-eyed speculators, its cost of capital gets lower and lower as its stock skyrockets; the higher its stock price, the more capital a company can raise in a secondary stock offering by issuing a set amount of shares. So its ability to reinvest capital and grow — its future — is shaped by the whims of speculators.

A second consequence of the securitization revolution: The further a lender is separated from a borrower, the more potential there is for fraud on the part of the borrower and underestimation of risk on the part of the lender.

Now, before you dismiss Soros as a Big Government “world improver,” keep in mind that he took the right side of every major financial crisis since World War II. The man clearly understands how markets can boom and bust, especially when greed and fear overwhelm rationality.

To see how Soros views the current crisis, I picked up his latest book, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means. In the first half, Soros laments that reflexivity is not taken seriously in university economics departments. In the second half, he argues that the current crisis marks the end of a decades-long expansion of U.S. dollar-based credit. Soros dubs the period from the early 1980s-2007 a “super bubble.” He makes a convincing case:

Credit conditions have been relaxed to such an extent that I wonder how they could be relaxed any further. This is certainly true as far as the U.S. consumer is concerned. Credit terms for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards have reached their maximum extension… It may also be true for commercial credit, particularly for leveraged buyouts and commercial real estate.

Only one thing is off the mark: Soros’ prescription for more government regulation. Nowhere in his book will you find an explanation of how the global paper money system practically guaranteed the formation of his “super bubble.” This super bubble would not have been possible under an international gold standard. The international gold standard of the late 1800s fostered a time of incredible growth and wealth creation in a stable price environment. It wasn’t perfect.

It had periodic depressions. But it was far better than what we’re looking at: Government’s inflationary policy responses to problems created by its policy of perpetual bailouts.

Don’t forget that every paper currency in history eventually fell to its intrinsic value: zero. The dollar is no different, although it has taken longer than most others. For decades, foreign governments have aggressively bought dollars, propping up their value, hoping, thus, to insure long-term economic stability. Instead, this action is heavily responsible for the runaway inflation we’re seeing all over the world.

Soros seems to believe that the real economy cannot grow unless credit is growing. This ignores the fact that credit growth does not create economic growth. It merely assists growth. Over the long term, the economy grows as the capacity to produce goods and services grows. No credit necessary.

But we must invest in the environment we face, not the one that we wish were in place. The government response to the ugly side of Soros’ reflexivity will seriously impair confidence in paper money.

Look for gold, energy and other natural resources to keep performing. Avoid financials, real estate and consumer discretionary stocks.

If gold, energy and other natural resources don’t do it for you, be sure to keep your eyes peeled tonight. I’m sending you my brand-new strategy, that not only has the government’s backing, it quite possibly could bring you upwards of 400%-600% over the next few weeks.

Until tonight…

Regards,
Dan Amoss
August 20, 2008

Protecting Yourself in this Dismal Economy was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.