Over the next 20 years, we can extrapolate from today’s trends to some incredible conclusions. Trends now in progress include organics, genetically engineered foods, genetically engineered pesticides, functional foods and artificial meats.

Let’s look at each in turn. Organics really began to take off in the 1980s. I remember it well, because I was studying biology in college, and for a practicum, our professor had us research whether there was anything to organic farming. The answer then was inconclusive. Now it’s not.

Recent research has established that organic produce is healthier to eat. The produce is stressed by exposure to environmental influences from which its factory-farmed cousins are sheltered. This leads it to create defensive chemicals that also protect people from illnesses.

For instance, polyphenolics are natural antioxidants produced by berries and corn. In plants, they help fight off pests. In our diet, they help prevent age-related decay, such as heart disease. Research at the University of California, Davis, recently found that organic berries and corn have up to 58% more of these precious substances.

Further, organic produce has a much higher abundance of trace minerals, the deficiency of which is being linked to various degenerative conditions, including high blood pressure, according to Nutrition Review.

Genetically-modified organisms (GMOs), especially genetically-engineered foods, are another big trend. These are organisms where one or more genes from another species are introduced. The Flavr Savr tomato was the first to hit the market, but others have followed suit.

There has been a reaction in some quarters against GMOs, largely from concern that the GMOs could proliferate and crossbreed with their naturally occurring cousins, resulting in a permanent change to a species — which would be a dilemma if a serious problem were discovered with the modification in the future.

Another concern is that persons allergic to something might consume it unknowingly. For example, consider anaphylactic shock, which is triggered by the common peanut and can be fatal in some persons. If the gene in peanuts that causes this were introduced into, say, corn, then a person who knows to avoid peanuts could accidentally die.

Fortunately, the work of Transformational Technologies Portfolio company deCODE genetics (DCGN: Nasdaq) is tackling this problem head on. Soon, deCODE’s work will help establish the function of every gene of interest. This means that scientists will be able to flag certain genes for warning, and food companies will know to label their produce appropriately (those failing to do so when informed of these risks would face huge liabilities).

Genetically-engineered pesticides are organisms designed to attack other organisms. For instance, Bacillus thuringiensis (BT) is a bacterium that kills a wide variety of insects by destroying their ability to digest food. Over 20 years of lab and field tests have not found any resistance developing in target insects. BT has the disadvantage that it’s destroyed by sunlight. However, genetic engineers have begun transferring its unusual genetic properties to other organisms that can better survive in sunlight and still protect plants.

BT and its cousins have the advantage that there is no residue in the food when later consumed. While the harm of pesticides has been hyped in many cases (notably the Alar scare of yesteryear…deaths due to poisoned apples were greatly exaggerated), there’s little dispute that eliminating chemicals of questionable dietary effect is desirable when safe alternatives are available.

Functional foods are things we eat primarily for taste and nutrition that also happen to offer health benefits. Green tea is a fine example. Recently, Mars came out with a revolutionary product called CocoaVia, the result of millions of dollars of research into cocoa manufacture. You can buy it now at www.cocoavia.com. (Note: neither Agora nor I have any financial interest in Mars or CocoaVia.)

The steps necessary to make cocoa tasty (not too bitter) also destroy valuable flavanols, chemicals that have been documented to protect against “LDL oxidation,” which causes the buildup of “bad” cholesterol in the arteries. Mars figured out how to process cocoa without destroying flavanols, and made the resulting candy bar tasty enough to eat.

CocoaVia is being hailed by Norman Hollenberg, a Harvard Medical School professor, as potentially beneficial to heart health. He said, “It’s going to be a billion-dollar market, you can bet on it…it’s going to be on every mother’s shelf. And a year from now, when the news starts trickling out, every old person is going to buy it.”

I eat CocoaVia, and recommend you consider doing so. (It’s tough medicine to take, but just discipline yourself.)

More functional foods are coming. Indeed, the various fields I’ve described above will in many cases blur and merge. For example, consider adding a gene to a common vegetable that causes it to produce the antioxidant pycnogenol.

Pycnogenol is extremely potent. It works with the same mechanism as the heavily researched and powerful BHT, but is four times more powerful. The trouble is it’s expensive — current sources are limited to grape seed extract and the bristlecone pine, a little shrub that lives thousands of years under intense ultraviolet light exposure on high mountainsides.

If pycnogenol could be made by, say, broccoli, then perhaps even former President Bush could be persuaded to eat it. Or perhaps not.

Finally, consider artificial meat. Today, we can purchase luncheon meats, including turkey, ham, salami and chicken. We can purchase polish sausages, hamburgers, chicken patties, barbecued ribs, ground beef and more…all made from vegetable matter.

OK, some of them don’t taste quite right. But I’d defy anyone to tell a Boca-breaded chicken patty from the real thing. And their flame-grilled burgers can fool people (I know — I’ve done it). These foods are healthier in many ways than their animal counterparts, and they’re getting better and better. Ten years ago, none tasted right. In 10 more years, I expect nearly all will taste fine.

But it gets still more interesting. Scientists are now figuring out how to grow specific tissues in the vat. Remember the finest filet mignon you ever tasted? Perfectly marbled, juicy and thick? How about that identical filet cloned and made in unlimited quantities and then sold for half the price?

It’s coming, and it will allow a new kind of “vegetarianism.”

Bon appetit!

To your profitable future,
Jonathan Kolber
June 28, 2006

The Future of Food was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.