The first is to have at least 5-10% of your portfolio invested in precious metals. (Or more, if it helps you sleep at night.) That’s gold, G-O-L-D. Or silver, S-I-L-V-E-R. Take delivery. Don’t entrust your gold and silver to somebody else. An ETF like streetTRACKS Gold (GLD: NYSE ARCA) is good for trading in your account. But it ain’t real gold. It’s a CLAIM on somebody else’s gold. And somebody else might say “no” one of these days.

This is Gold 101: For absolute monetary safety, you want real metal under your control. Remember the old expression, “Gold is money.” Some people — economists, mostly — disagree with that. OK, buy their gold. Smile. Say thank you. Walk away briskly with the gold. Don’t look back.

Here’s the second: Accumulate positions in solid, cash-rich gold miners. Sure, some of the junior mining guys are great speculations. Eventually, the really good explorers and mine developers will get bought out by the large companies. That’s how it works. Eventually. But for now, especially if you are just getting into owning gold miners, go with the ones that have large reserves, strong operations and plenty of cash flow.

Here are some of the best gold miners. Look at AngloGold Ashanti (AU: NYSE), Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM: NYSE), Goldcorp (GG: NYSE), Kinross Gold Corp (KGC: NYSE), or Yamana Gold (AUY: NYSE).

I like all of these companies. All of them have good management, reserves, operations, technical ability, cash flow and sheets. Are there any risks? Yes, the stock prices tend to track the price for gold. So if the price of gold falls, these stocks take the hit.

Also, if the stock market has another round of selling, the gold miners may go down in the suction. That’s bad. What happens is that when the market tumbles, some players have to raise cash in a hurry. So they sell their winners, which of late have included many gold miners. Or their broker sells them out at the end of a trading session to meet a margin call. So moving down with the market is a chance we’re taking by owning shares in any stocks at all. Even owning good gold miners has risk.

The third thing you ought to do is be sure to assemble positions in good, solid energy plays. I noted above that gold is money. Let me add that energy is wealth. Really, it’s hard to do very much in this world without energy supplies. You can live in a cave and freeze your butt off, maybe. So the view from my perch is that well-run companies with energy reserves and good cash flow ought to hold up over the long term.

Until we meet again,
Byron King

April 9, 2009

Three Important Pieces of Advice from a Gold Bug was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Of course, this may seem like common sense. But it does make a statement about the necessities in life. Most areas these days are heated with natural gas… Meaning, you are mandated to pay for natural gas to live.

Here’s a small-cap technique to use this pay-to-play mandate in your favor…

Natural gas is much cleaner than other fossil fuels. Coal and oil are just about as dirty as it gets. For the same amount of energy when burned, natural gas produces 29% less carbon dioxide than petroleum and 44% less than coal.

But natural gas is an important energy type even if it’s not simply burned. And it doesn’t take much of an imagination to see how more “green” legislation is on the way.

In 2007, Congress worked its way through a bill mandating a ridiculous amount of ethanol to be produced by 2022 — 36 billion gallons. That’s roughly five times more ethanol than is currently produced. And it takes a lot of natural gas to produce that ethanol.

In the U.S., corn is the largest source of ethanol. To grow corn, it takes a lot of fertilizer — about 22 million tons of fertilizer is consumed every year. The price of fertilizer is 90% dependent on the price of natural gas. On top of that, ethanol plants are powered by natural gas.

While natural gas is greener than what we currently use, there is still one more reason for the natural gas price hike: demand.

If you take a look at the accompanying chart, you can see the expected growth of natural gas in electricity generation. Coal is still the No. 1 energy source, but natural gas is about to blow away oil, nuclear and renewable energies.

The demand for natural gas is only going to strengthen the industry. One way to play this growth is to buy a natural gas producer. However, figuring out which ones will pop is guesswork at best.

What we have today is not a growth story. It’s a true profit story. You see, as strong as natural gas is, we aren’t going to be placing any bets on future prices. Instead, we found the one segment of the natural gas industry that thrives when the price of natural gas is both up and down…utilities.

Gas utilities perform well no matter what the price of natural gas is. These companies pass on costs straight to consumers.

It’s smart business for these distributors. They simply profit from their services, not what the speculative prices are.

Fortunately for us, the overall utility market is fragmented. I know that doesn’t sound like a good thing, but it is…

If we had a national utility, we’d end up with a megacap stock that would have too much attention. With attention comes slow to no gains. That’s why you won’t see us recommend any blue chips here at Penny Sleuth. But, a fragmented industry, such as this one, leads to many small caps to choose from — many of which are extremely undervalued.

The second important aspect to consider when looking at utilities is the monopolistic attributes these companies have. To get into this business, you have to front a lot of costs. You have to secure the product — in this case, natural gas — make sure there’s a large enough customer base, and work out the policy issues — which can be quite a hassle depending on the state and municipality.

You don’t normally have a choice of which supplier you want to get your natural gas from. You just get it from whichever utility company is supplying the rest of the community. That gives almost all of these businesses an advantage. It is also the reward for the upfront costs.

On top of that, many of these companies are considered Master Limited Partnerships, which give them another market advantage — they are tax-free.

With the many small-cap utilities to choose from, it’s important to do your research. It takes plenty of digging to find the right one.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

February 25, 2009

Green Energy’s Beneficial Impact on Natural Gas was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

The force of the water – going at 12-15 miles per hour – pushed cars around like so much debris. Firefighters had to rescue people from their cars as freezing cold water swirled around them. They had to use a helicopter to pull some out of the more sticky situations.

This was a big deal where I live. My kids came home early as the county closed schools over concerns about water supply. It hit home, too, because I’ve been writing about the dangers of this exact thing for at least two years. So I have cause to revisit one of my favorite investment themes – water. When water pipes get old, they break.

The pipe that broke was 44 years old. The Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission, the local water utility, has nearly 5,500 miles of pipeline. Of these, 1,380 miles of water mains are more than 50 years old.

Another 2,000 miles are between 30-50 years old. Many of these pipes are near the end of their engineered life spans. The WSSC replaces 27 miles of pipe per year. At that pace, the WSSC will replace a pipe, on average, no sooner than once every 200 years.

It’s a simple matter of math to see that’s untenable. This was the third major water main break in the last six months. In June, one break led to the widest disruption of service in more than 20 years. Restaurants closed and residents were under a boil-water advisory. From Jan. 1 through November of 2008, the WSSC repaired 1,357 breaks and leaks – or about four per day.

The previous general manager at the WSSC, a former Navy engineer, raised the alarms in February 2008. "In my view, the public will no longer be able to trust the system that delivers water to residents," he said. Unfortunately, this is a problem that is widespread in our country. Water pipes are aging and need replacement.

The Great Water Build Out

Globally, too, the demand for new water infrastructure is also strong. There is, for example, a huge urbanization movement happening on this planet of ours. Think about this: The average population of the world’s top 100 cities in 1900 was 700,000. Today, the average city has 6 million people living in it. In just the last 30 years, the world’s urban population went from 1.6 billion to 3.3 billion. This puts huge stresses on water systems.

Industrialization also eats up a lot of water. It takes large amounts of water to make food – some 630 gallons of water to make a hamburger. Even basic consumer goods take a lot of water to make – it takes 2,900 gallons of water to make a pair of jeans.

Semiconductor plants are huge consumers of water. Power generators also use water for cooling. Manufacturers use it for cutting, cleaning and more.

We ask a lot of water. The water services industry alone is a $385 billion business – and growing. "There is a boom in the construction of new assets," says Antoine Frerot, CEO of Veolia Water. "The assets are also more complex and more technical than before." Water-related equipment is another $64 billion industry. That too is a growing field.

Energy and water are also linked in ways people don’t appreciate. It takes a lot of water to make energy.

As the easy oil is gone and we go deeper into the earth, our water needs rise. "Enhanced oil recovery," reports the FT , "is particularly water intensive." Alternative energy is no better off. Biofuels, obviously, consume water, but so do solar and wind power. It’s just not as obvious. (There are enormous amounts of water used in making the equipment.)

But this is only half of the greater water crisis. The other half is an issue of supply. I don’t have space to get into that aspect of it again here. But suffice it to say that in the American West, China, India and many other parts of the world, getting water where people live is an ongoing problem. According to the U.N., there are over 1 billion people without access to clean water. This has appalling health effects.

"Water has never been more under threat in modern history," reports the FT without exaggeration. A new special report in the salmon-colored pages of the Financial Times is entirely about water. I give the paper credit for reporting on this topic more than any other mainstream outlet I follow.

Thinking thematically, energy, infrastructure and agriculture all look attractive to me as long-term investment themes. And water issues touch each of these in numerous ways.

Over the holidays, I swapped e-mails with my friend Tom Rooney. He is a former CEO of a water pipe company and a highly sought-after consultant on water issues, especially now. "Water and water infrastructure are getting hotter by the day," he reports.

"It’s not going away." I agree, it’s not going away – whether we have a global depression or not. For investors, water is, indeed, blue gold.

Sincerely,
Chris Mayer

January 8, 2009

Investing in Water: Mining for Blue Gold was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Since then, banks and brokerage stocks were punished. Energy and material stocks have soared-thanks to the Fed’s inflation campaign. Fed officials have taken their ability to devalue the U.S. dollar to new heights. Sure, it’s recovered slightly. But, what collateral backs today’s dollar? Mostly mortgage securities that nobody wants — as if Treasury bond collateral weren’t bad enough.

Despite the latest “reports,” current trends still have room to run. Just consider Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Those shareholders could be effectively wiped out by endless equity offerings as early as next year. The mountain of debt holders and bond insurance policyholders comes first.

Now, it’s possible that the federal government could issue hundreds of billions in new Treasuries to officially guarantee Fannie’s and Freddie’s liabilities. If no one lines up to buy these bonds, the Fed could monetize them. Such a scenario could herald a return to double-digit long-term interest rates and a collapse in confidence in paper money — demanding a new monetary system. We live in interesting times. Billionaire currency speculator George Soros thinks we’ve just entered the ugly side of a “super bubble.”

I wrote about George Soros’ investing framework in the August 2007 Strategic Investment. Here’s the excerpt on Soros:

The growth of securitization has truly altered the global economy… One negative consequence is that financial markets are starting to shape the destiny of the real economy, not the other way around. Storied currency speculator George Soros was one of the first to speak publicly about the phenomenon of markets shaping economies. He calls it the theory of “reflexivity” and described it when testifying in front of Congress in 1994:

“The generally accepted theory is that financial markets tend toward equilibrium and, on the whole, discount the future correctly. I operate using a different theory, according to which financial markets cannot possibly discount the future correctly, because they do not merely discount the future; they help to shape it.”

Here’s reflexivity at work: As a company’s stock grows more coveted by wild-eyed speculators, its cost of capital gets lower and lower as its stock skyrockets; the higher its stock price, the more capital a company can raise in a secondary stock offering by issuing a set amount of shares. So its ability to reinvest capital and grow — its future — is shaped by the whims of speculators.

A second consequence of the securitization revolution: The further a lender is separated from a borrower, the more potential there is for fraud on the part of the borrower and underestimation of risk on the part of the lender.

Now, before you dismiss Soros as a Big Government “world improver,” keep in mind that he took the right side of every major financial crisis since World War II. The man clearly understands how markets can boom and bust, especially when greed and fear overwhelm rationality.

To see how Soros views the current crisis, I picked up his latest book, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means. In the first half, Soros laments that reflexivity is not taken seriously in university economics departments. In the second half, he argues that the current crisis marks the end of a decades-long expansion of U.S. dollar-based credit. Soros dubs the period from the early 1980s-2007 a “super bubble.” He makes a convincing case:

Credit conditions have been relaxed to such an extent that I wonder how they could be relaxed any further. This is certainly true as far as the U.S. consumer is concerned. Credit terms for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards have reached their maximum extension… It may also be true for commercial credit, particularly for leveraged buyouts and commercial real estate.

Only one thing is off the mark: Soros’ prescription for more government regulation. Nowhere in his book will you find an explanation of how the global paper money system practically guaranteed the formation of his “super bubble.” This super bubble would not have been possible under an international gold standard. The international gold standard of the late 1800s fostered a time of incredible growth and wealth creation in a stable price environment. It wasn’t perfect.

It had periodic depressions. But it was far better than what we’re looking at: Government’s inflationary policy responses to problems created by its policy of perpetual bailouts.

Don’t forget that every paper currency in history eventually fell to its intrinsic value: zero. The dollar is no different, although it has taken longer than most others. For decades, foreign governments have aggressively bought dollars, propping up their value, hoping, thus, to insure long-term economic stability. Instead, this action is heavily responsible for the runaway inflation we’re seeing all over the world.

Soros seems to believe that the real economy cannot grow unless credit is growing. This ignores the fact that credit growth does not create economic growth. It merely assists growth. Over the long term, the economy grows as the capacity to produce goods and services grows. No credit necessary.

But we must invest in the environment we face, not the one that we wish were in place. The government response to the ugly side of Soros’ reflexivity will seriously impair confidence in paper money.

Look for gold, energy and other natural resources to keep performing. Avoid financials, real estate and consumer discretionary stocks.

If gold, energy and other natural resources don’t do it for you, be sure to keep your eyes peeled tonight. I’m sending you my brand-new strategy, that not only has the government’s backing, it quite possibly could bring you upwards of 400%-600% over the next few weeks.

Until tonight…

Regards,
Dan Amoss
August 20, 2008

Protecting Yourself in this Dismal Economy was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.