So sit tight for more ethanol talk and some ethanol stocks that have caught readers’ eyes…

*** “I understand how ethanol can work if you can make it from sugarcane, or switch grass, or manure, or other waste, but how can it work in commercial agriculture growing crops that are traditional in the U.S.? The farmer has fossil fuel delivered to his farm at a cost, he prepares the field with fossil fuel, he plants using fossil fuel, cultivates with the same, fertilizes with, harvests with, and delivers with, then the crop is processed into ethanol with fossil fuel, and then it must be delivered into a marketplace with fossil fuel. After all that, there is still a positive gain in BTUs? I would sure like to hear the definitive truth on this issue.” — Ken

Well, Ken, Ethanol Across America, a non-profit education campaign of the Clean Fuels Foundation, has published just such a study to examine the energy balance of ethanol.

Here’s EAA’s take: Ethanol is unfairly criticized, like when all the energy attributed to grow a bushel of corn and process it is counted. The report calls ethanol a co-product of corn, and that means that the corn should only be charged with the energy that was used to turn it into ethanol. After all, corn is a commodity, and it’s probably not grown for a specific purpose — so it is grown due to overall demand and sold into broad markets.

And here’s another argument EAA takes on to battle the “balance of energy” argument: Assume a pile of coal has a latent heat value of 1 million BTUs, but it can be converted into a liquid fuel that can produce 500,000 BTUs. The liquid fuel becomes more valuable because you can fill your tank with it to make your car go. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for coal.

The report goes on to say that if you limit the debate strictly to BTU’s — then the argument that ethanol production is inefficient is bunk. For instance, electric power plants using coal are only 35% efficient. Basically, any type of energy conversion results in a negative energy balance.

The age of cheap oil is over, and whatever “hidden costs” are mentioned to try and debunk whatever the new alternative fuel is, people will still need to get around, food will still need to be delivered to grocery stores, and planes will still need to circle the globe. Our best stab at the definitive truth is this: The age of cheap oil is over, and something(s) will need to come along and supplement and/or replace it.

*** “You might want to look at STKL. I primarily invested in this company because of its organic food. They are starting to get noticed because of their cellulosic ethanol technology…With the technology they have they don’t need corn to create ethanol, which solves one of the problems you brought up.” — Ron

Nice find, Ron. SunOpta Inc. (STKL: NASDAQ) basically deals in biomass conversion. They have a steam explosion machine that can process all kinds if wastes and vegetable matter including wood chips, sugarcane, cereal straws, and waste paper.

“In their natural state, these materials are not easily separated into their component parts. By processing with the addition of high-pressure steam, the StakeTech Steam Explosion System breaks the chemical and physical bonds that exist between the components of these materials, allowing their subsequent separation and processing into products and components that potentially have wide and diverse applications,” according to the company’s website. 

The company is focusing its efforts on the pre-treatment of biomass for the production of ethanol, which has made it a hot commodity on Wall Street. In the beginning of January, the $472 million company traded for around $5.25. Now the price is up to around $8.30 thanks to some heavy volume.

*** “I have spent the last year intensely studying both ethanol and biodiesel. The reality is that both fuels will be needed to wean this country off our petroleum dependence.  But I think the case for biodiesel as a better fuel can be made.  Europe, India, and now China are putting major efforts to switching to biodiesel.  Here’s why. Biodiesel can be made out of any fat or vegetable food or non-food oil. The list is endless, and includes recycled and waste oils from various processes. Where ethanol grows only in the middle of the country, a company called Fry-O-Diesel is researching how to use the unlimited supply of trap grease and waste cooking oil.  California has 88,000 restaurants in its trade organization and that represents about 75 million gallons of waste oils. Biodiesel plants so far have primarily been soybean oil based so far but that will change over the next 5 years as these new technologies get perfected that can use whatever fats and oils are available.” — Kari, Biodiesel Council of California

In the long run, I think both ethanol and biodiesel will find their respective places in the market. But for the time being, ethanol has a greater chance of growing because the country is more prepared for it. A regular gas-burning car can run on the lower-concentration ethanol blends. So it’s a good start without having to go out and buy new hardware, so to speak. And flex-fuel vehicles that can run on higher concentrations of ethanol in gasoline are also carving out their niche.

Kari continues: “To truly deal with the reality of global warming we must lower our use of petroleum in all vehicles, heavy and light, and get the absolute best fuel mileage possible. Diesel-Hybrid technology has been used on trains for decades, it is just now being crossed over to vehicles in both the heavy and light classes.” 

True, we’ll probably see a lot more diesel-hybrid vehicles in the near future, and when they come, biodiesel could be the next hot stock on Wall Street. But that’s for another column…

***Ethanol Stock Watch Update

The mainstream media are jumping all over ethanol these days, and the fuel just got a big mention in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday.

Although it is only 5% of the company’s revenue, Archer Daniels Midland stock is soaring because it is the top ethanol producer. The company’s shares are up 50% so far just this year to about $37.

But what about the other big ethanol producers?

As it turns out, they haven’t gone public yet. VeraSun Energy of Brooking, South Dakota and Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings of Illinois both filed with the SEC to launch initial public offerings two weeks ago, according to the WSJ article. They are the second and third largest ethanol makers.

Best,

Gunner
April 17, 2006

Ethanol Questions Answered, Again! was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.