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	<title>Penny Sleuth &#187; ARM&#8217;s</title>
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	<description>Penny stocks, small-cap stocks, pink sheet stocks and OTCBB coverage by unbiased and independent analysts.</description>
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		<title>As the World Turns</title>
		<link>http://pennysleuth.com/as-the-world-turns/</link>
		<comments>http://pennysleuth.com/as-the-world-turns/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Dec 2007 18:40:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Christopher Hancock</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ARM's]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal funds rate]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://agoratestsite.com/wordpresspenny/?p=128</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[“I do not doubt that a low U.S. federal funds rate in response to the dot-com crash, and especially the 1% rate set in mid-2003 to counter potential deflation, lowered interest rates on adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and may have contributed to the rise in U.S. home prices.” — Alan Greenspan Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Bear [...]<p><a href="http://pennysleuth.com/as-the-world-turns/">As the World Turns</a> was originally featured in the <a href="http://pennysleuth.com">Penny Sleuth</a>. </p>
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span class="Normal"><em><a href="http://agoratestsite.com/wordpresspenny/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/122107sleuth1.png"></a><a href="http://agoratestsite.com/wordpresspenny/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/122107sleuth2.png"></a><a href="http://agoratestsite.com/wordpresspenny/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/122107sleuth3.png"></a>“I do not doubt that a low U.S. federal funds rate in response to the dot-com crash, and especially the 1% rate set in mid-2003 to counter potential deflation, lowered interest rates on adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and may have contributed to the rise in U.S. home prices.”</em></span></p>
<p align="right"><span class="Normal">— Alan Greenspan</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal"><strong>Morgan Stanley (<a title="Morgan Stanley" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ms&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den" target="_blank"><strong>NYSE:MS</strong>)</a></strong> and <strong>Bear Stearns (<a title="bear stearns" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ABSC" target="_blank"><strong>NYSE:BSC</strong>)</a></strong> took one to the chin. They posted their first quarterly losses ever.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Morgan boasts 72 years of banking experience. But somehow, a single trading team in the company’s fixed-income division conveniently fell on the sword.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Its miscalculations were exacerbated by deterioration in the credit markets and a lack of liquidity for <a title="subprime" href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Issues/2007/DR112907.html">subprime</a> and other mortgage-related securities, our friends at CNN report.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Translated: A couple of greedy traders placed a bad bet. More importantly, they placed a bad bet in a bad system. So it goes.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Unfortunately, the epidemic of rogue trading desks spread. So has the propensity to assign blame:</span></p>
<p align="center"><span class="Normal"> <span class="Normal"><em><a href="http://agoratestsite.com/wordpresspenny/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/122107sleuth1.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-132" src="http://agoratestsite.com/wordpresspenny/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/122107sleuth1.png" alt="wall streets expanding black hole" width="220" height="564" /></a></em></span></span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Bankers point to Greenspan. Greenspan dodges. He points to bureaucrats.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">“Of course,” the once indubitable chairman writes, “the elephant in the living room is the glaring omission that, while the bubble was inflating, there was a complete lack of regulation for both mortgage origination and Wall Street product ‘innovation.’”</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Regardless, bankers need cash. And they need it now.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Initially, they cast their lines in foreign waters. The sheiks and Chinese nibble…but they don’t take the full bait.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">So the bankers turn to Atlas (the Fed)…and Atlas desperately wants to shrug. But alas, he grins as his ailing knees bend ever so slightly more:</span></p>
<p align="center"><span class="Normal"> <span class="Normal"><em><a href="http://agoratestsite.com/wordpresspenny/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/122107sleuth1.png"></a><a href="http://agoratestsite.com/wordpresspenny/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/122107sleuth2.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-133" src="http://agoratestsite.com/wordpresspenny/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/122107sleuth2.png" alt="Atlas" width="415" height="311" /></a></em></span></span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">He knows banks make the world go round. Without them, the disco ball stops spinning. And the seemingly interminable champagne toast comes to an end.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">So reluctantly, Atlas offers $20 billion in short-term loans. Investors sigh. The world, at least for now, keeps turning.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">But you, dear reader, shouldn’t care. Spending time and energy condemning the arson doesn’t help rebuild the house.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">We must look forward. Ignore the headlines. Headlines are simply evidence for something missed, not something found.</span></p>
<p>It didn’t take an Ivy-clad Ph.D. to magically foresee a bull market in real estate five years ag</p>
<p align="center"><span class="Normal"> <span class="Normal"><em><a href="http://agoratestsite.com/wordpresspenny/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/122107sleuth1.png"></a><a href="http://agoratestsite.com/wordpresspenny/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/122107sleuth2.png"></a><a href="http://agoratestsite.com/wordpresspenny/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/122107sleuth3.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-134" src="http://agoratestsite.com/wordpresspenny/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/122107sleuth3.png" alt="Federal Open Market Committee" width="432" height="305" /></a></em></span></span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">And forecasting the “next” great bull market shouldn’t require one, either.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">So when we read an estimate by Booz Allen Hamilton that suggests that <a title="investing in infrastructure" href="http://www.pennysleuth.com/free-reports/investing-in-infrastructure/" target="_self">modernizing and expanding</a> urban water, electricity and transportation systems over the next 23 years would require $40 trillion — “a figure roughly equal to the 2006 market capitalization of all shares held in all stock markets in the world,” we sit up and listen.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">We believe you should, too.</span></p>
<p><span class="Normal">Until next time,<br />
Christopher Hancock<br />
<em>December 21, 2007</em></span></p>
<p><span class="Normal"><strong>P.S.:</strong> As you may already know, I head a newsletter service called the <em>Free Market Investor</em>. I recently told my readers about a very special opportunity, which I call “The World’s Greatest Growth Stock.” </span></p>
<p><a href="http://pennysleuth.com/as-the-world-turns/">As the World Turns</a> was originally featured in the <a href="http://pennysleuth.com">Penny Sleuth</a>. </p>
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