Could a new IPO mean that the market’s really on the way to a rebound?

This week, Solarwinds (NYSE: SWI) became the first venture capital-backed initial public offering (IPO) in more than nine months. That’s a significant event for those who watch the IPO market… it’s also significant for the rest of us – after all, IPOs can be a pretty good indicator of how the stock market is turning.

And in 2009, things haven’t been turning very fast…

In the first quarter of 2009, there were only two new IPO deals done globally; that’s compared to the 100 deals done in the first quarter of 2007. It wasn’t for a lack of eligible companies either: all told, 26 firms withdrew or postponed their initial public offerings this year. That’s no surprise given the global economic slowdown that started last year.

When companies are considering going public, how the market’s faring can have a big effect on them. That’s because the market dictates just how much capital a newly minted stock is able to raise. Investors in bear markets are a lot less likely to pony up as much cash to buy and IPO stock than those who are investing during a market rally. And studies have shown that the owners of private companies going public (venture capitalists and entrepreneurs) are much less likely to start the expensive underwriting process when times are tough.

Things haven’t been helped by the shakeup in the investment banking world. Since the financial meltdown started, some of the biggest underwriters (the firms that help take private companies public) have closed up shop – Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns among them.

A Turnaround for the IPO Market?

Despite all of the barriers to new public companies right now, it looks like the IPO market is starting to catch some momentum once again. While Solarwinds may be the first venture-backed IPO in three quarters, it’s far from being the first IPO in 2009.

Since January, six large IPOs that have taken place in U.S. markets. Of those six, four have gone public in the last five weeks… That’s a pretty substantial increase in tempo.

And while other economic factors send mixed messages to investors on a daily basis, the warming up of the IPO market is one signal that’s decidedly bullish.

Small-Caps Lead the IPO Rally

Of the six new issues that have hit the markets this year, every single one has been a small cap. The names include highly anticipated offerings like language software developer Rosetta Stone (NYSE: RST), satellite imaging firm Digital Globe (NYSE: DGI), and for-profit college company Bridgepoint Education (NYSE: BPI).

Overall, these IPOs are a big win for small-cap investors. Not only do they provide exciting opportunities to invest in companies that have until now been private, they also suggest that the markets are receptive to a continuation of the rally that took a break last week.

Cheers,
Jonas Elmerraji

May 22, 2009

Jonas Elmerraji

Jonas Elmerraji is an editor of Penny Stock Fortunes and a frequent contributor the Penny Sleuth. Jonas also occasionally writes for financial publications like Forbes, TheStreet.com, and Investopedia. He has been quoted as an investment expert in Investor’s Business Daily, Consumers Digest, and Bankrate.com among others. Before joining Agora Financial, Jonas’s held positions at an investment firm and at a “Big 4″ public accounting firm. He holds a degree in Financial Economics.

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Read more on SolarWinds, Initial Public Offering (IPO) at Wikinvest

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