The engine of the great American Economy is, and always will be, the consumer. You and your neighbors and all of your buying power will determine how well the market performs. Right now, it seems as though everyone is hurting — so it’s the right time to capitalize on the pain with solid small-cap plays.

It all begins with the struggling consumer: your neighbor. His home is worth 20% less than it was just a couple of years ago and he’s upside down on his mortgage. He was laid off from a good job back in November when everyone started to fear the worst—and was forced to take a job that pays much less.

During better times, your neighbor would pay lip service to the idea of saving money — without actually following through, of course… But the situation has now become far more serious. It’s time to save some dough and pay those bills on time… or risk losing it all.

But where to cut back? Here is a list of the average household’s top expenses, in order:

1. Social Security taxes
2. Mortgage
3. Car payment(s)
4. Groceries
5. Restaurant meals

Your neighbor can’t cut back on payroll taxes. And he has to pay the mortgage to keep a roof over his family’s head. He also needs to keep his car so he can make the drive to his job every morning. But he can always cut back on food… the easiest and most effective way to balance any family’s ailing budget.

Buying cheaper groceries is a start. But cutting back on restaurant food is crucial. As far as we’re concerned, there are three kinds of restaurant food: fine dining, casual dining, and take-out.

As you’ve probably already guessed, fine dining stocks are getting crushed right now. Morton’s Restaurant Group Inc. (NYSE: MRT) — the folks who brought us the posh Morton’s Steakhouse restaurants — have seen shares plummet more than 80% since September.

The other end of the dining spectrum is where we can make our money. As revenues at casual and fine dining establishments sag, cheap take-out and fast food joints will continue to attract cash-strapped customers. After all, a sack of burgers can sometimes be a cheaper alternative to buying groceries and cooking at home.

The ultimate in cheap food is pizza. You can’t go anywhere else and buy so much food for such a small amount of money. Your down-on-his-luck neighbor can even swing by a pizza chain on his way home from work and pick up dinner for his entire family for $10 to $15.

That’s why we’re turning to pizza’s fast food roots — Domino’s Pizza Inc. (NYSE: DPZ). This stock was $13 in September. Now, at about $7 per share, Domino’s is trading at seven times earnings and less than half sales.

Domino’s competitor Papa John’s Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA) — also a small-cap—has seen share rise more than 50% since November. With a more reasonable multiple approaching more reasonable levels, Papa John’s has managed to sustain revenue throughout the 2008 fiscal year.

Be sure to add these names to your short list of recession-resistant plays. Both stocks warrant additional research.

Best,
Greg Guenthner

February 10, 2009

Greg Guenthner

Greg Guenthner heads up Agora Financial’s small-cap division and is the founder of one of the only independent OTC research advisories in the industry. A graduate of George Mason University, Guenthner joined Agora in 2005 after several years as a journalist. He is managing editor of Penny Stock Fortunes and Bulletin Board Elite.

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