Greg Guenthner explains ways it could be possible to make money from the upcoming Downturn in Real Estate.

The debt-dealers are getting desperate. And you could cash in while the housing market starts to cash out. More on that in a minute…

Their message is smeared on billboards, TV and Internet banner ads — the lenders want you to cave in and cash out that home equity. One advertisement in particular is sure to catch your eye: A house made of money, with the spigot turned on and money pouring right out into your hands.

Cash out that equity! Debt doesn’t matter; money is FREE! These are the messages they pound into your skull. After all, this is the only way you’re getting a raise. Real salaries are stagnant or dropping… So people have cashed out and put the money into cars, clothes and maybe even another garage out back for that new car.

Then along came a new career: house flipping. Last year, you could have made a lot of money simply by buying a house, holding it for a few months, then selling it for a handsome profit.

Only the more intellectual news outlets mentioned the idea that the housing market was in bubble mode last summer, but now you’d be hard pressed to find someone who hasn’t heard the phrase “housing bubble.” After all, what goes up must come down.

And down they go. Homebuilders are warning investors that this year might not be as great as 2005. From the Associated Press:

“Shares of homebuilders took a hit [Feb. 7] after Toll Brothers Inc. said new orders fell in the first quarter and home deliveries this year would be weaker than expected.

“The Philadelphia Housing Sector Index, a national index based on share prices for 21 companies, fell by more than 1% as investors worried about signs the housing market has cooled. Shares of Toll Brothers sank $1.73, or 5.5%, to close at $29.47 in trading on the New York Stock Exchange.”

Downturn in Real Estate: Look to Lending Instead of Housing

So what should investors do as the bubble continues to lose air? Well, you should anticipate the housing market to struggle this year because the Fed will continue raising rates. And when the Fed raises rates, payday lenders make a lot of money, as do loan collectors — the folks who collect the bad loans when people default due to high interest rates. And many of these are small-cap companies.

Here are some companies you might want to research:

– Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA: NASDAQ); market cap: $733 million; price: $46
– Advance America (AEA: NYSE); market cap: $1.1 billion; price: $13
– QC Holdings (QCCO: NASDAQ); market cap: $266 million; price: $13
– First Cash Financial Services (FCFS: NASDAQ); market cap: $535 million; price: $34

And for those who deny the potential after-effects of the housing bubble, take a look at some other economies that have been affected.

You only need to turn to other markets around the world to see the end result of the housing bust. Just look at this excerpt from Bill Fleckenstein’s MSN Money column that ran today:

“And last week brought evidence of how the problem has affected Australia. This, from ‘Slump hits home,’ a story in the Sydney Morning Herald. As writer Matt Wade chronicles, the slow unwinding of that country’s housing bubble is starting to hurt a bit, after having been somewhat benign last year:

“‘The casualty list from Sydney’s property boom is growing. First, a generation of first-home seekers found itself priced out of the market. Then, as house prices finally sagged, thousands of overstretched investors and owner-occupiers fell into trouble.’

“He goes on to point out the insidious nature of bubbles… which is why I detest the Fed so much, because of its role in aiding and abetting idiotic activities that ultimately harm society…

“‘Now, even vulnerable people who had nothing to do with the fluctuations of property prices could be hurt. As the State Government struggles to repair the holes in the budget caused by stagnant property revenue, the aftermath of the boom could be painful for bystanders like the old, the sick, the disabled and the poor. The suffering would occur if the Government were forced to cut services and lift charges for these groups as it covers the shortfall in property taxes.’”

Until next week,

Gunner
february 13, 2006

P.S. Small-cap gold stocks are another key investment to keep in mind as the housing bubble fizzles out. In fact, Sala Kannan offers some important advice in her Friday Sleuth column about why you should buy small-cap gold.

Greg Guenthner

Greg Guenthner heads up Agora Financial’s small-cap division and is the founder of one of the only independent OTC research advisories in the industry. A graduate of George Mason University, Guenthner joined Agora in 2005 after several years as a journalist. He is managing editor of Penny Stock Fortunes and Bulletin Board Elite.

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