Dan Amoss, CFA, is a student of the Austrian school of economics, a discipline that he uses to identify imbalances in specific sectors of the market. He tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that the market typically misses. Amoss is a Maryland native, a graduate of Loyola University Maryland, and earned his CFA charter in 2005. In spring 2008, he recommended Lehman Brothers puts, advising readers to hold the position as the stock fell from $45 to $12. Amoss is managing editor of the Strategic Short Report.
Central banks cannot manipulate stock prices upward for very long. The harder they press, the more they risk ultimate disaster. Unless the Fed want to risk confidence in the U.S. dollar spiraling out of control, its future policy will fall short of its most aggressive rhetoric.
With the QE2 decision and ...read more
We could see some fireworks in the market this week. We have the midterm elections in the U.S., of course. But we also have what some are billing one of the most important policy meetings of the Federal Reserve is its history.
The Fed is boxing itself in, allowing the markets ...read more
If you’ve been reading my market commentary for more than a few months, you know that the global economy faces a hangover from a giant credit binge. This hangover will return after the effects of the stimulus plan wear off, and it will correct many of the capital spending mistakes ...read more
As Europe returns from its summer vacations, we’ll have a better idea whether EU-branded duct tape and bailing wire will hold together the European banking system. Right now, that could mean big gains for investors who are willing to bet against Greece’s so-called recovery…
As I write, Greece is paralyzed by ...read more
The market rallied last week, the result of a “better than expected” monthly jobs report. But things are not quite what they appear to be – in reality, the jobs outlook is somewhat bleaker. Here’s my outlook on the market’s prospects for 2010 – along with what you can do ...read more
With all of the focus on shifting investments from riskier assets – like stocks – to safer ones, resource companies have enjoyed increased attention and investment. That should come as little surprise right now: investors who are forced to keep their cash in the market are focusing on stocks that ...read more
They just don’t make earnings like they used to. In many industries, the quality of earnings has deteriorated in recent quarters.
Banks are among the worst offenders. On the downside of the biggest credit cycle in history, many banks are slowing the pace at which they’re provisioning for credit losses. Some ...read more
Despite continued strong sentiment from earnings, the stock market still has further to fall to catch up with the slowing economy. U.S. GDP will keep decelerating — likely approaching to a zero percent growth rate by 2011. Here’s why:
1. The long-term trend back towards consumer frugality and higher savings rates ...read more
Credit risk is a long-forgotten nightmare for most investors, when in fact it remains a headwind for many companies. It’s the first in a long string of triggers for the next mortgage meltdown. But that doesn’t mean that you need to fall victim to the next downside move the market ...read more
Last week’s market sell-off was an eye opener for most investors, but with trading returning to normal this week, it’s likely that it’ll soon be forgotten by both Wall Street and Main Street. But for observant market participants, the “Crash of 2:45 p.m.” offers some valuable insights – like these ...read more
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