As I’ve warned readers of Emerging Capital Report, the consensus view among epidemiologists and the World Health Organization is that a pandemic similar to the bird flu of 1918 will hit humanity. The question is not one of if, but when.

They expect it within years, not decades. Some, including noted epidemiologist Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota, expect societal disruption similar to World War III. Dr. David Nabarro, chief avian flu coordinator for the United Nations, has predicted that as many as 150 million could die. He expects that, upon a pandemic starting, borders will close, airports will shut down, and travelers everywhere will be stranded. Then things will get really bad.

It’s particularly spooky that the most prominent suspect circulating the globe today is itself another strain of bird flu, H5N1. H5N1 literally eats victims’ lungs away. It also attacks the brain, and evidence from other mammals suggests that no organ is safe. Dr. Nabarro is greatly troubled that it has now spread to cats, with which many people sleep.

In a special report offered free to subscribers, I have provided an overview of cutting edge laboratory research that may give us a defense. I also have suggested a few surprising things that you can do now to safeguard your home and family, including a little-known supplement that may offer a total defense.

Some pundits, including people with solid credentials, have declared that the threat may well be overblown.  Dr. Jeremy Farrar declared, “It could fizzle out and kill 98 people — one more than the number dead today.” As reported in New York Times, Dr. Farrar works full-time on the front lines, having treated two dozen infected people at The Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Dr. Farrar bemoans the fact that only Tamiflu has shown any efficacy against avian flu, and there is no vaccine. But the Rx drug Relenza may also be helpful.

Regardless, in the view of many scientists and doctors, the disease warrants a far greater investment of research dollars than it has received. Dr. Nabarro says, “We spend billions to protect ourselves from threats that may not exist (but) our investment in pandemic insurance is minute.”

No one knows with certainty the actual risk of pandemic. There’s only been one comparable event in recorded history. However, today I’ll explore a very plausible scenario for bird flu pandemic that was recently articulated in a Science article by a noted researcher.

Recent research has established that when humans contract bird flu, it happens via deep penetration of the lungs.  The flu, at least in its current form, cannot gain a foothold merely by contacting the mucous membranes of the nose, mouth and upper respiratory tract.

That’s good news, because it provides us with an extra level of defense against the contagion.  But let’s not get complacent.

The reality, as discussed in my special report, is that humanity simply does not have a vaccine we can be confident will work. Nor can we ever be sure of this in advance of an outbreak.

The reason is that all of the vaccine stockpiled today is for known variants of flu. Unfortunately, the pandemic virus, when it comes, will differ genetically from today’s viruses in unknown ways. That’s how it will be able to spread effectively from person to person.

Earthfiles recently interviewed Dr. Ian Wilson, a Molecular Biologist at Scripps Research Institute who is studying flu transmission mechanisms.

Dr. Wilson is studying a technology called the glycan microarray. His intent is to figure out ways that this technology can be transported to places where H5N1 outbreaks have just been documented. The device is helpful in examining HA binders, which are sites on the virus expected to be significant should it become a pandemic. The HA binders on H5N1 resemble those on the 1918 bird flu.

Essentially, the linkage between a bird flu virus and human cells happens through a kind of “lock and key” mechanism. The binders on the virus are like keys, and the receptors on cells are like locks. Viruses mutate by changing these “keys,” and when one fits a new “lock,” a new mechanism for transmission has then been discovered through evolutionary trial and error.

Normally, bird flu only infects birds. It does so by attaching to their intestinal cells. But mutation can enable the flu to infect humans and other mammals by attaching to cells in the respiratory tract.

One way such mutation can happen is via genetic swapping.  Specifically, when bird flu is in the proximity of viruses that can infect mammals, they occasionally swap genes.  There is particularly high risk of this when migratory waterfowl that carry H5N1 come into contact with chickens that live in proximity to pigs.

The reason this is so risky is that the pigs are an ideal “laboratory” for the mixing of such viruses, and the pigs can transmit a new mutated viruses to the farmers who breed them.

The H5N1 HA binder is a particularly good candidate. However, Dr. Wilson also emphasizes that a variety of other as yet unidentified mutations could lead to the same risk of person-to-person transmission.

In his recent Science paper, Dr. Wilson noted that this kind of a change could potentially require as few as two mutations in H5N1 virus. That’s a far lower number than other researchers have estimated, with the most common number being 10.

Dr. Wilson emphasized in the interview that there is an ongoing combination of very aggressive monitoring of H5N1 outbreaks around the world with quick testing of new strains as they emerge. Indeed, there is an international surveillance system active in over 150 countries focused on human cases of infection. In Dr. Wilson’s judgment, this will give virologists and public health authorities maximum advance warning and opportunity to respond.

Should the virus fail to be contained, it could lead to a pandemic similar in transmission and severity to that of 1918. The 1918 flu killed an estimated 50 million people, more than the hostilities of World War I. (Indeed, some credit it with helping insure the Allied victory, because German forces were so decimated by it.)

At that time, humanity was arguably completely unprepared for a new virus that would be transmitted as people traveled from place to place. Today, we have some preparation in the form of procedures for monitoring, quarantines, and stockpiles (albeit limited) of advanced antiviral drugs.

While it’s possible that stockpiles of medicines such as Tamiflu would help control the outbreak, there’s a major problem.  The problem is that almost all the people alive today have never been exposed to a virus resembling H5N1.

The reason this is so disturbing to epidemiologists is that the immune system works on the basis of memory.  Having once been exposed to and survived a certain kind of pathogen, for many years thereafter, your immune system will recognize a similar invader.

The human immune system is and will remain the first line of defense against any emerging pandemic. Today, ours is woefully unprepared.

Fortunately, some small-cap companies are using the tools of genetic engineering and working feverishly to develop “crippled” H5N1 viruses that can serve as suitable immune system boosters.

Other technologies, including bacteriological vat production, can enable rapid production of huge quantities of vaccine. This combination of genetic engineering and genetically enhanced production technologies could be ready to swing into action to save us in a few short years.

Let’s hope we have enough time.

To your profitable future,

Jonathan Kolber
March 29, 2006

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